White House denies Gaza ceasefire talks fizzled out, again

The U.S. has repeatedly portrayed a Gaza ceasefire/hostage release deal as close, only to see it slip away.

It is not hard to understand why the Biden administration would like to believe, and portray, that a Gaza ceasefire deal that would free the hostages held by Hamas is close.

High among the reasons: a genuine sense of urgency to save the lives of the Israeli and American hostages held by Hamas for ten months now; American public opinion, particularly among Democrats, which has long soured on Israel’s war in Gaza; the staggering humanitarian crisis in Gaza and a Palestinian death toll now reported by Gazan authorities to be over 40,000 people; and more recently, signals from Iran that it might delay retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas’ political chief in Tehran in July, ostensibly so as not to impede efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.

But after repeated rounds of the White House portraying a deal as within reach that seems to slip away, one is left to wonder if the administration is engaged in wishful thinking, including about the Israeli leadership’s commitment to a hostage deal; is overselling the odds of a deal in order to reduce the pressures that could lead to a wider regional war, as well as domestic political pressure on itself; and/or is just ineffective or unable to get it over the finish line.

The latest White House statements on the outcome of talks held over the weekend in Cairo, previously portrayed as potentially the “end game” for clinching a deal, sound more like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. It’s hard to take the claims of “progress” and “constructive”-ness at face value. Rather, one might see them as serving the purpose of trying to create the appearance of progress for a mediation process that may be lacking the political willingness of the Israeli leadership to halt the war, and remove the Israeli military presence in two key corridors even during a temporary ceasefire; and of Hamas to agree to a deal on those terms.

While the United States has repeatedly warned that prolongation of the Gaza war poses a heightened risk of expanding into a wider regional war, some analysts see the Israeli leadership deftly using the threat of a wider regional war which the U.S. seeks to avoid as a way to keep U.S. pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza at bay.

The White House’s John Kirby insisted today that the Gaza ceasefire talks held in Cairo over the weekend did not break down, and are being followed up now by “working group” talks being held at a lower level.

“There was no breakdown,” Kirby told reporters on a virtual gaggle today (Aug. 26). “They made enough progress that they… needed to transition to a working group level, so you didn't need the mediators all there and the leadership there.”

“The talks actually progressed to a point where they felt like the next logical step was to have working groups at lower levels sit down to hammer out these finer details,” Kirby said. “But there's no truth at all to the fact that they broke down. Quite the contrary…The team on the ground…reported to us this morning that the talks are continuing and that they have been constructive.”

“Now, I can't be perfectly predictive,” Kirby continued. “I can't tell you that…tomorrow we're going to have a deal. That's certainly the desire, but they have been moving forward in such a way that it was now time to turn over the work to these working groups.”

“The working groups are now meeting and talking, and so there continues to be progress, and our team on the ground continues to describe the talks as constructive,” he said.

National Security Council Middle East coordinator “Brent McGurk stayed in Cairo an extra day to get them kicked off, and he's there now, but he'll probably depart relatively soon, and leave the discussion and the work to the working group members,” Kirby said.

Preemptive strikes that Israel undertook against Lebanese Hezbollah on Saturday to disrupt what Israel said was a wider, planned imminent Hezbollah attack deep into Israel did not impede the Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo, Kirby said.

The United States does not know if there will be further planned major attacks by Hezbollah, or Iran, targeting Israel, he said.

“I don’t know,” Kirby said. “All I can tell you is…we’re ready. We don't want to see that. But I can't be perfectly predictive. We're watching it as closely as we can.”

“We have to assume that Iran remains postured and prepared, should that be a decision that they make, which is why we continue to maintain a very robust force posture in the region,” Kirby said. “We have got to make sure we're postured and prepared, and we are. …It’s a dynamic situation. We have to treat it like that.”

Kirby acknowledged the talks have dragged on for months.

“Whether the window [for a deal] is closing or not, look, we've had a sense of urgency about this since the get-go and the President announced this [Gaza ceasefire] proposal way back in late May,” Kirby said. “Here we are… talking in late August. We would have obviously preferred to see the ceasefire in place months ago.

“And I think we're all watching what's going on in the region writ large, and very, very closely monitoring the situation,” he said. “We don’t want to see an all out war, and we're doing everything we can to try to prevent that.”

A key interlocutor in the Gaza ceasefire talks, Qatari Prime Minister and foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassin Al-Thani, held meetings in Iran today with new Iranian President Masoud Pezezshkian and new Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who served as a key Iranian negotiator in the Iran nuclear deal talks.

It seems likely that Al-Thani conveyed U.S. messages urging de-escalation in the meetings.

Araghchi, in the meeting with the Qatari minister, said Iran would support any Gaza ceasefire deal that Hamas agrees to.

“We will support any agreement that our friends in the Palestinian resistance and Hamas approve,” Araghchi told Al-Thani, according to the Iranian foreign ministry.

“The meeting discussed bilateral cooperation…, the latest developments in Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories, the latest developments in mediation efforts for a ceasefire deal, and tensions in the Middle East,” the Qatari readout of Al-Thani’s meeting with Araghchi said.

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