As US ramps up Gaza ceasefire efforts, Iran signals it may hold off retaliation
As US ramps up Gaza ceasefire efforts, Iran signals it may hold off retaliation
“We hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire,” Iran mission to UN said in a statement tonight (Aug. 9).
A day after the United States, Egypt and Qatar said they would convene last-ditch Gaza ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas on August 15, Iran signaled that it may be willing to delay its anticipated retaliation for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran late last month so as not to interfere with that effort.
“Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza,” Iran’s mission to the UN said in a statement provided by a spokesman tonight (Aug. 9). “Any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognized by us.
“The Israeli regime has violated our national security and sovereignty through its recent act of terrorism,” the statement continued. “We have the legitimate right to self-defense—a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire.
“However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire,” the statement went on.
A senior US administration official said yesterday that the United States is using both intensive diplomacy, as well as a build-up of force in the region, to try to deter significant military action either by Iran or its proxy groups.
“On the Iranians, I am not going to talk about our messaging to the Iranians,” the senior U.S. administration, speaking not for attribution, told journalists on a Zoom call Thursday night. “I’ll just say, we see there’s absolutely no legitimate basis whatsoever for Iran to launch a military attack against Israel, which it continues to threaten. But,…we will be prepared for any contingency, and I think we’re just continuing to work through that.
“We have moved an awful lot of military force into the region, including F-22s that arrived (Thursday),” he continued. “So, you know, we’re going to be ready for all contingencies.
The official said the United States completely rejects Iran’s claim to have a right to attack Israel, out of claimed self-defense for the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.
“I think the consequences of such a direct attack could be quite significant, including for Iran and Iran’s economy and everything else, which I know they have a new government they’re concerned about,” he said.
“So we’re doing all we can to deter such an attack, to defeat an attack if it comes, and also to demonstrate to Iran there’s a better path forward here than a military attack,” the U.S. official said. “So, we’ll see. I think they’re having their own deliberations. I can’t speak for them.”
The State Department said it does not know what arguments might be getting traction within the Iranian system, but said that the U.S. saw a Gaza ceasefire as advancing multiple priorities for the region, and a further escalation as impeding those.
“I don’t want to speak for the Iranians or try to make an assessment about what is convincing to the Iranians or what is compelling to them… when they make their decisions,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told journalists at the department briefing Thursday (Aug. 8).
“On one side of the coin, yes, we believe that a ceasefire would go a long way towards alleviating tensions in the region,” he said. In addition to bringing relief to the people of Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages to their families, he said, “we think it would allow us to make progress in the diplomatic endeavors we have been pursuing to bring calm along the Israel-Lebanon border, and it would allow us to ease broader regional tensions.”
“On the other side of that coin, certainly any further escalation just makes all of the region’s problems more difficult,” he said. “So I would hope that that’s something that Iran is paying attention to and something that they’re cognizant of and they wouldn’t want to do anything to hurt prospects for a ceasefire, that they wouldn’t want to do anything to further raise regional tensions and… raise the risk of this conflict spiraling out of control. But we can’t speak for them.”
The leaders of Egypt, Qatar and the United States called in a joint statement Thursday night for “both sides to resume urgent discussions” on August 15 in either Doha or Cairo, in order to “close all remaining gaps and commence implementation of the deal without further delay.”
“It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement,” US President Joe Biden, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Qatar Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani said in the joint statement.
“As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties,” it continued.
Israel, in a one sentence statement subsequently issued by the Office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, indicated it would attend.
“Pursuant to the proposal by the US and the mediators, Israel will – on 15 August – send the negotiations team to a place to be determined in order to finalize the details of the implementation of the framework agreement,” the Israel PMO statement said.
The Israel Policy Forum’s Nimrod Novik praised the joint statement as effectively an ultimatum that it will be hard for Netanyahu to reject.
“Finally, a great move by POTUS,” Novik, a former senior advisor to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, wrote on Twitter.
The “mediators' ultimatum to Netanyahu to send his Hostages release negotiators by Thursday (or be exposed for the swindler you are...). Now stick with it! The only language he understands.”
Why will it be hard for Netanyahu to reject?
“He can, but the domestic cost is mounting,” Novik told me. “He has been struggling to refute the accusations” by Israeli security officials that Netanyahu is impeding a hostage release deal. “Irrefutable evidence in the form of declining the invite might be that one too many. He still can play with the terms, and is likely to, hence the need for Biden to stick with it, assuming that he finally internalized that the 'hug him' strategy failed miserably and pointing the finger at the villain is the most effective pressure.”
As for Iranian calculations, a Gaza ceasefire deal could give Iran a face-saving way out of taking near-term action, that they fear could spiral out of control, as well as benefit Israeli hawks and hardliners, said Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group.
“A ceasefire agreement could give them a safe, face-saving way out of this, at least out of the need for taking immediate retaliatory action,” Vaez said.
“I think the Iranians are fully aware of the fact that retaliation now is going to play into Netanyahu’s hands,” he continued. “Whereas, as they say, revenge is often a dish best served cold…. And so if they can get a ceasefire now, they can even take credit for it, noting that in the past ten months, urging and pressure from everyone, including the mediators, never worked until Iran put the threat of serious escalation on the table.”
“From the Iranian perspective, it’s the concept that Israel is constantly pushing the envelope that they believe has to stop,” he said. “But, if indeed a costly military retaliation provides enough justification for Netanyahu to expand the conflict and with it his political lifeline, then Iran has played into Bibi’s hands. And I think that is what makes them reluctant to go down this path.”
A former Iranian diplomat suggested that if Israel’s goal in carrying out the Haniyeh assassination in Iran was in part to provoke Iran to overreact, Iran should not take the bait.
“Any response must, first and foremost, counter and defeat the purpose of the action,” Hamid Dehghani, a former Iranian ambassador to Qatar, wrote on Twitter on Aug. 2, as noted by Iranian journalist Mohammad Mazhari.
“If the goal [of the Israeli assassination of Haniyeh] is to damage Iran’s relations with the world, and to help a certain candidate in the American elections (Trump), to continue and expand the war between the United States and Iran, and to save Netanyahu, the type of response must defeat these goals,” Dehghani continued.
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