US ‘shares’ Israel concern Iran retaliation ‘could’ come this week

The Israelis “believe it’s increasingly likely that there will be an attack by Iran and/or its proxies, and perhaps in the coming days,” NSC’s John Kirby. “We share those concerns.”

President Biden and European allies intensified diplomatic consultations and outreach to try to avert regional escalation as Israel said it was on high alert for Iranian retaliation, and as the Pentagon rushed additional naval and air power to the region to try to defend Israel from potential attack.

But it was unclear if the U.S. believed an Iranian attack was likely, or if it might be conducting some sort of psychological warfare, forcing Israel to brace for one without striking, yet, or possibly to advance Gaza ceasefire efforts.

The Israelis “believe it’s increasingly likely that there will be an attack by Iran and/or its proxies, and perhaps in the coming days,” the National Security Council’s John Kirby told reporters on a Zoom call today (August 12).

“We share those concerns,” Kirby said. “It could be this week.”

Axios this evening cited Israeli and US officials assessing that an Iranian attack is not happening tonight.

Diplomatic sources indicated earlier today a sense that Iran might – or might not--act early this week, but seemingly thought an attack was unlikely during Gaza ceasefire talks proposed by the US, Egypt and Qatar to start Thursday August 15.

“It is difficult to ascertain at this particular time, if there is an attack by Iran and or its proxies, what that could look like,” Kirby said. “But we have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks, which is why…we have increased our force posture and capabilities in the region, even in just the last few days.”

President Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom today to discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions and reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, the White House said.

“We expressed our support for the defense of Israel against Iranian aggression” and “called on Iran to stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack” and “the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place,” the leaders of the five nations said in a joint statement.

The Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer subsequently held separate calls with new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh had been in Tehran to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration when he was assassinated in an IRGC guest house on July 31.

“In my phone call with the Iranian President, I urged that everything be done to avoid further military escalation,” Scholz wrote on Twitter. “The spiral of violence in the Middle East must be broken now.”

The Iranian president, “while emphasizing diplomatic solutions to issues,” asserted that “Iran will never give in to pressure, to sanctions and to bullying and considers it has the right to respond to aggressors in accordance with international norms,” Iran’s IRNA news agency reported.

The White House said it was still pressing for talks on a Gaza ceasefire/hostage  release deal to be held on Thursday, likely in Cairo, though it is not clear at this point if Hamas will attend.

“We fully expect that those talks are going to move forward, and they need to move forward,” Kirby said. “All negotiators should return to the table and bring this deal to a close. … Show up, close it and let's get it done.”

Iran on Friday said its priority was to establish a ceasefire in Gaza, and it hoped that its response to the Haniyeh assassination “will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”

An unnamed Iranian “regime insider” suggested to the Financial Times that Iran was already imposing a cost on Israel by making it brace for an attack that may--or may not--come.

“There may be no attack at all, or there could be one tonight,” he told the paper in a piece published today.

While Iran would “keep its finger on the trigger,” he said, it would also want to “see if Israel will first compromise on Gaza, forcing Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire.”

The White House’s Kirby held out the prospect that Gaza ceasefire talks could still happen Thursday, if “nothing is flying through the air.”

“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he said. “But as you and I are sitting here right now with nothing flying through the air, in a significant way, we still believe these talks are important. We want to see them happen on Thursday. We're going to be there. We want all the players to be there, and we'll just have to kind of see where we are come Thursday.”

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