World powers face dilemma on how to revive Iran nuclear diplomacy (Updated)
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to travel to Iran on Sunday after Agency reports growing problems with its ability to conduct monitoring
World powers seeking a diplomatic resolution on Iran’s nuclear program find themselves confronting a dilemma. If they censure Iran for increasing problems reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), they may face Iran refusing to return to talks on reviving the nuclear deal that Trump quit in 2018, and whose limits Iran has subsequently been progressively exceeding.
Ahead of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna next week (Sept. 13-17), intensive American/European/Russian consultations were held in Moscow and Paris this week on how to deal with growing IAEA concerns about its ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear activities, and how to get Iran to return to stalled talks on reviving full implementation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, that broke off in June.
New Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in a call with European Council President Charles Michel on Wednesday (Sept. 8 ), warned that an IAEA resolution censuring it next week could imperil efforts to get Iran back to Vienna. “It is natural that in the case of a non-constructive treatment in the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is unreasonable to expect Iran to have a constructive response,” Raisi told Michel, according to an Iranian readout of the call on the Iranian presidential website. “Non-constructive actions naturally disrupt the negotiation process as well.”
US Iran envoy Rob Malley met with his E3 (Britain, France and Germany) counterparts in Paris today (Sept. 10) for consultations ahead of the BoG meeting and overall efforts to try to get Iran back to talks on reviving the JCPOA. The State Department did not offer a readout of the Paris consultations today. But the WSJ’s Laurence Norman reported the US/E3 group was inclined to wait and see what Iran will do in the next few days before deciding on whether or not to pursue an IAEA resolution censuring Iran at the board meeting next week.
Earlier this week, Malley and his team held consultations with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Russian counterparts in Moscow on the Iran issue, calling them “good and constructive.”
The US/Russia consultations in Moscow were followed by a call from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Sept. 9.
Russia appears to be playing a particularly key role, publicly rejecting talk of an IAEA resolution, while privately cajoling and pressuring Iran to return to Vienna talks ASAP and trying to find a solution to the IAEA’s growing Iran monitoring concerns.
"There should be no illusion. If a draft resolution on Iran is tabled in the IAEA Board of Governors, Russia will vote against," Russia’s envoy to the IAEA Mikhail Ulyanov wrote on Twitter today. "There is no need for a resolution which would be not only senseless but extremely detrimental. Let’s better count on diplomacy."
There were unconfirmed rumors Friday that Iran may permit the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to travel to Iran to discuss the agency’s concerns, ahead of the Board meeting next week.*
There could be some last-minute, behind the scenes negotiating going on before the IAEA Board meeting next week, in which Russia is playing a helpful role, Kelsey Davenport, of the Arms Control Association, said.
“Russian frustration is evident,” Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told me. “And Russia has more leverage in Tehran right now to try to push forward Iranian cooperation with the IAEA.”
An IAEA resolution censuring Iran next week “would likely foreclose nuclear deal revival this year,” the Eurasia Group’s Henry Rome warned in an analysis tonight. “IAEA censure, even if opposed by Russia and China, would have negative domestic repercussions in Tehran and push the odds of the revival of the deal below 50% this year.”
*Update (September 11, 2021): An IAEA spokesman says on Saturday: “Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi will meet with Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Head of the AEOI, Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran on Sunday. Director General Grossi is expected to hold a press conference at Vienna airport around 2030 on Sunday evening.“