U.S. urges restraint as Israel braces for possible Iran retaliation

“Ask the U.S. government!” Iran misson to UN told me in response to query if U.S. communicated message urging restraint to them.

Reuters photo of the area next to the Iranian embassy (left) in Damascus, Syria that did not appear to have been damaged in the April 1 Israeli strike on what Iran called a consulate.

The United States assesses that we are in a window where an Iranian response to an April 1^st  Israeli strike that killed seven IRGC officials at an Iranian facility in Damascus, Syria, could happen possibly anytime between now to next week.

The United States has been talking to several countries that have a relationship with Iran asking them to send Iran a message urging restraint, and also speaking with the Israelis urging them not to overreact.

“We continue to be concerned about the risk of escalation in the Middle East,…specifically about the threats made in recent days by Iran against the State of Israel and the Israeli people,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told journalists at the State Department briefing today.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called his counterparts in Turkey, China and Saudi Arabia in the past 24 hours “to make clear that escalation is not in anyone's interest and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate,” Miller said.

“We have also engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days and urged them as well to send a clear message to Iran that escalation is not in Iran's interest,” he said. “It's not in the region's interest and it's not in the world's interest.”

Iranian media reported a flurry of calls between Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his counterparts from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, as well as Germany and Britain over the past 36 hours, among others.

“Today I made clear to Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron wrote on Twitter.

“I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence,” Cameron said. “Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks.”

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock called for “avoiding further regional escalation” and “exercising maximum restraint,” a readout of the call between the German and Iranian ministers today said.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations, asked if the U.S. government has communicated through that office such a message urging restraint, told me: “Ask the U.S. government!”

(One American source indicated he was “not aware” of direct U.S./Iran communications on the matter, while a spokesman for the U.S. mission to the UN did not respond to a query. It is worth noting that both the Iranian and U.S. responses are not denials.)

Iran’s mission to the UN today also tweeted that if the UN Security Council had condemned Israel’s attack on its “diplomatic premises in Damascus” and “subsequently brought to justice its perpetrators,” then the “imperative” to retaliate might have been eliminated.

President Biden used a joint press conference with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio on Wednesday to twice reiterate his pledge of “ironclad” support to Israel from threats of attack by Iran and its proxies.

The Iranians are “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel,” President Biden said at the press conference with the Japanese prime minister in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday (April 10). “As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad.”

“Let me say it again: ironclad,” Biden repeated. “We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”

U.S. officials hope the Iranians are paying attention to what President Biden said and various postures and diplomatic efforts the U.S. is making.

Iran’s Supreme Leader on Wednesday said that Israel’s April 1 attack on what Iran claims to be an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria must be punished.

“When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech marking the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on Wednesday (April 10). “The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished, and it shall be.”

The United States has still not formally determined whether the building struck, next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, is a diplomatic facility, the State Department said. But the U.S. recognizes the fact that Iran considers Israel targeting what Iran claims to be a diplomatic facility as a major escalation.

Israel PM:  “We are…prepared”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used a visit to an Israeli F-15 air base today to vow that whoever harms Israel, Israel will harm.

“We are in challenging times,” Netanyahu said on a visit to the Tel Nof Air Base today.

While still engaged in war in Gaza, “we are also prepared for scenarios involving challenges in other sectors,” Netanyahu said.

“We are prepared to meet all of the security needs of the State of Israel, both defensively and offensively,” he said.

The Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari today said: “In recent months, we have improved our offensive capabilities, and will know how to act where needed.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in a call today with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, warned: “A direct Iranian attack will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”

An Israeli analyst expressed frustration and despair with the lack of guidance from the Israeli leadership to the public on how to prepare, and for taking actions leading to threats of escalation and blowback.

“With the threat of an Iranian strike looming, and which could lead to war if it’s on Israeli controlled soil, it’s hard to convey how negligent and absent Israeli leadership is,” Mairav Zonszein, an Israel analyst with the International Crisis Group, wrote on Twitter today. “The Israeli public has no idea what to do, if and how to prepare, no control and no guidance.”

“On top of Israeli leadership just expecting Israelis to sit around and withstand a potential war with Iran, there is no end in sight for those already displaced from the north, and it seems like many of the hostages in Gaza are dead,” she wrote. “There is no plan. No off-ramp. No light.”

*Updated at 4:21pm after State Department briefing.

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