US struggles to avoid wider war after Iran missile attack on Israel

After days of escalating Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a day after Israel announced limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon, Iran today launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.

The Biden administration said initial assessments indicated there had been very few, possibly no fatalities from the massive attack, which it nevertheless called a significant escalation.

“The attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective,” President Biden said. “Make no mistake, the United States is fully…supportive of Israel.”

But Israel vowed to retaliate. And the Biden administration seemed increasingly to be struggling to prevent the Israeli government from dragging the United States into a war with Iran, just a month before the U.S. elections.

“Based on what we know at this point, this attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told journalists at the White House today.

In the near term, the Biden administration signaled that it may be trying to slow an Israeli response down—if it can.

“This is a fluid situation,” Sullivan said. “We will consult with the Israelis on next steps in terms of response and how to deal with what Iran has just done. And we will continue to monitor for further threats and attacks from Iran and its proxies. We are particularly focused on protecting US service members in the region.”

In terms of a possible response, “We want to have these conversations with our Israeli counterparts over the coming days,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told journalists at the Department briefing.

“We're just a couple hours after this event having occurred,” Miller said. “It’s important that all of us inside the United States be able to take stock of the attack…We need time to collect all of the information, and we need time to talk with our Israeli counterparts, and we need time to talk to other partners in the region about the way forward. And we’ll do that over the coming days.

“But it is clear that this was, once again, a significant escalation by Iran,” Miller said. “When you see Iran launching attacks on another state, ultimately to come to the defense of a terrorist organization, it is an escalation. Israel has the right to defend itself, but we will coordinate with them on what any response looks like.”

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris monitored the attack and the response from the White House Situation Room, Sullivan said.

The U.S. military coordinated closely with the Israeli Defense Forces to help defend Israel. “US naval destroyers joined Israeli air defense units in firing interceptors to shoot down inbound missiles,” Sullivan said.

IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi vowed tonight that Israel would respond to the Iranian attack.

“We will choose when to exact the price, and prove our precise and surprising attack capabilities, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon,” Halevi said, in remarks provided by the IDF.

Iran’s Defense Minister meantime warned that Iran would escalate against an Israeli response. “If Israel reacts, we will respond in a more severe manner,” he said. “A large part of our advanced missiles have not yet been used. The targets were completely military ones, especially the intelligence sites that were used for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.”

An Israel feeling greatly emboldened after killing the Hezbollah leader in massive strikes on southern Beirut last Friday is unlikely to be talked into restraint by the White House, some Middle East experts suggested.

“One thing is certain: Unlike after April 14, this time Israel won’t ‘take the win’ as Biden urged Netanyahu,” Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer wrote on Twitter. “This time Israel’s response will be devastating, including perhaps strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.”

“The US so far has displayed a degraded leverage on [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, and a worrying tendency to be drifted by his agenda,” Joseph Bahout, the Lebanon-based director of the American University of Beirut’s public policy institute, wrote on Twitter Tuesday. “How far could this go, and would it apply in case of a direct Israeli action against Iran?”

“Netanyahu’s government has been trying to draw Iran into the battlefield, so that the USA would be forced to get involved in a regional war,” Hongda Fan, a professor of Middle East studies from China, wrote on Twitter. “With the presidential election voting day approaching, how will Washington deal with the Israeli government?”

“I can’t shake the idea that Netanyahu instigated the Lebanese offensive to create instability in the region and help Trump’s campaign,” former Democratic (and Jewish) congressman John Yarmuth wrote on Twitter.

Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for her part, vowed to protect U.S. personnel and interests from Iran.

“Let us be clear: Iran is not only a threat to Israel; Iran is also a threat to American personnel in the region, American interests, and innocent civilians across the region,” Harris said in remarks this afternoon.

“We will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend U.S. forces and interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists,” she said. “And we will continue to work with our allies and partners to disrupt Iran’s aggressive behavior and hold them accountable.”

The NSC’s Sullivan said it was too early to discuss what recommendations the White House might make to Israel.

“We want to have some deep consultations with the Israelis,” he said. “Obviously, this is a significant escalation by Iran, a significant event, and it is equally significant that we were able to step up with Israel and create a situation in which no one was killed in this attack in Israel, so far as we know at this time.

“We are now going to look at what the appropriate next steps are to secure first and foremost American interests and then to promote stability to the maximum extent possible, as we go forward,” he said.

Photo: Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024. Photo credit: Amir Cohen/Reuters.

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