US ‘still very worried’ after talks with Russia about build-up near Ukraine
“We don't have clarity into Moscow's intentions,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said of Russian military build-up near Ukraine. “But we do know its playbook."
The United States is still worried after CIA Director Bill Burns was dispatched to Russia last week to consult with Kremlin officials about a Russian military build-up near Ukraine, current and former senior American diplomats say.
“We’re concerned by reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a joint press availability with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at the State Department on Wednesday (Nov. 10). “We're looking at this very, very closely. We're also consulting very closely with allies and partners.”
“We don't have clarity into Moscow's intentions,” Blinken continued. “But we do know its playbook. And our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014 when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory, and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked.”
CIA Director Bill Burns, at Pres. Biden’s request, led a U.S. delegation to Moscow last week (Nov. 2 and 3) to hold consultations with “members of the Russian government to discuss a range of issues in the bilateral relationship,” a US embassy spokesperson told Russia’s Tass news agency.
Burns, who served as US ambassador to Russia from 2005-2008, met with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and also held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin said Monday. Accompanying Burns on the trip was recently confirmed Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried.
Former Diplomat: US concerned Burns’ message “did not go through”
But despite the direct, high-level consultations by an emissary respected by Moscow, the Biden administration is concerned that the Burns’ message to his Russian counterparts “did not go through,” according to a former top White House and State Department advisor on Europe.
“What I hear…is the U.S. thinks the Bill Burns’ message did not go through,” Daniel Fried, a former Special Assistant and NSC Senior Director for Presidents Clinton and Bush and Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, now with the Atlantic Council, told Diplomatic today (Nov. 11). “’We are still worried.’”
Fried summarized Burns’ message to the Russians as being ‘don’t misunderstand our determination, there will be serious consequences’ for a Russian military incursion into Ukraine.
“What I heard from multiple sources, is the U.S. is still very worried,” Fried said. “The fear is, Putin is listening to only a small circle of advisors.”
“Putin may think that the United States is in retreat, after we pulled out of Afghanistan; and divided politically, and having economic problems,” Fried said. Putin may be calculating, Fried continued, that “energy prices are high. I have gas. Therefore, the moment is right, the correlation is right, to take care of serious business….Belarus and Ukrainian sovereignty, [and] democratic reform…is… terrible for Putinism. He needs that to stop. And [so we see] all these vectors of pressure.”
The United States on Nov. 5 sent a demarche to NATO allies “providing them with additional intelligence and requesting further coordination in response to the irregular troop movements,” CNN reported.
Russian military expert: Not clear yet if US message changed Russian calculus.
Russian military expert Michael Kofman said he does not believe the problem is that Burns’ message did not get through to the Kremlin, but that it may not have changed its calculus.
“I’m sure [the message] got through,” Kofman, director of Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), told Diplomatic in an interview today. “Patrushev was there and heard him. I just don’t think it necessarily changed Russian calculus. But we won’t know until some time from now.”
“It is a question of whether anything the U.S. said was meaningful to change Russian thinking or calculus on the subject,” Kofman said. “If it believes that it needs to use force to achieve its political aims. …What the US response would be, the potential consequences, what the Europeans would do…They have either judged they are willing to pay those costs and can manage that crisis and get through it, or they have not. We won’t know ultimately [if and] until they end up doing it.”
Burns is highly respected in Russia, Kofman added. “I am sure they heard him. I just don’t know that what he said would prove to be more compelling than the considerations that are driving the Russian political leadership to think the use of force might be preferable at this stage.”
Expert: Russia sees no way forward in Normandy talks, alarmed by deepening US/UK military ties with Ukraine
From Russia’s perspective, “I think the purpose of a military operation would be to force the abrogation of the Minsk ceasefire agreement, and force a new, even more favorable, agreement on Ukraine,” Kofman said. “The second purpose would be possibly to prevent any further Ukrainian cooperation with the U.S., UK and other NATO members. To create a new set of facts.”
From the Kremlin point of view, “they believe there is a growing defense/military relationship between the U.S., Ukraine and the U.K.,” Kofman said. “They have talked about it this year…It’s very clear their red line moved. The goal post is about the U.S. military presence in Ukraine and how Ukraine is being used.”
“I also think that, from the Russian point of view, the main political departure…is they see no clear way forward in the Normandy talks” on settling the Russian/Ukraine conflict, Kofman said. “They see no purpose to the current political process to resolve the conflict between them and Ukraine.”
Asked if Washington could work with allies to try to provide a political proposal to Russia to address its concerns, Kofman said he does not see that as realistic at this point.
“The agency right now lies with Ukraine and Russia, what Moscow and Kyiv choose to do,” he said. “I don’t think it is something the US or European countries can do at this stage, at least politically/diplomatically, to change what appears to be a complete standstill in the process.”
“I think the challenge is how best to signal to Russia and dissuade Russia from believing the use of force would not come at a significant cost,” Kofman said. “We won’t know if that message got heard.”
Merkel, France reach out
Beyond the Burns’ delegation’s consultations in Moscow, European leaders have also been trying to reach out to Putin this week. Outgoing German Chanceller Angela Merkel held phone calls with Putin both today (Nov. 11) and yesterday (Nov. 10), focused on the migrant crisis at the Belarus/Poland border as well as on the Russian/Ukraine tensions.
"In a telephone conversation, the acting chancellor…said that the Belarusian regime was… using defenseless people in a hybrid attack against the European Union,” German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said in a media statement today.
Merkel also raised the issue of “security around and in the east of Ukraine and urged the Russian president to advance Normandy Quartet talks for the implementation of the Minsk Accords on a peace settlement of the conflict,” Seibert said, according to Tass.
France, meantime, is due to host “2+2” talks with French and Russia’s top diplomats and military chiefs on Friday (Nov. 12).
"I consider France's warning of its plans to raise the Ukraine issue as proof that our French colleagues realize that tomorrow - and in general - they cannot avoid responsibility for what their proteges in Kiev are doing,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference today. "We will have a very serious conversation on the matter.”
Lavrov also acknowledged that Russia had rejected holding Normandy format talks with their Ukrainian counterparts at this time.
"When our French colleagues said that Russia had refused to participate in a November 11 Normandy Four meeting at the level of foreign ministers, we explained everything to them in detail in written form," Lavrov continued.
Expert: Russian offensive does not seem ‘imminent,’ but ‘ominous’ shift in Moscow tone
“It does appear that the Russian military has been ordered to position itself for a possible operation in the coming months,” the Center for Naval Analysis’ Kofman wrote in a Twitter thread about the Russian military build up on Nov. 9.
“I don't see indicators that a Russian military offensive is imminent,” Kofman continued. “I would look to the winter, maybe after the holidays. Either way, I doubt a political decision has yet been made.”
“The more ominous aspect of these deployments is a change in political tone,” Kofman continued. “Russian leadership has been laying out a position on Ukraine this year, emphasizing red lines, such that it appears they believe use of force would be lucrative or necessary to achieve political aims.”
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