Hopes for reaching a six week Gaza truce and the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas seemed uncertain on Wednesday, though the United States said it did not think a deal was out of reach and would continue to work for one.
“We continue to believe that the obstacles are not insurmountable and that a deal can be reached, and a deal is in the interest of Israel, it’s in the interest of the Palestinian people, and it’s in the interest of the broader region,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told journalists at the department press briefing Wednesday (March 6).
“So we’re going to continue to push for one, but I’m not going to offer an assessment of where things stand today,” he said. “Talks are ongoing.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that Egypt’s intelligence chief Abbas Kamel “stepped in to prevent Hamas from walking away from negotiations late Tuesday, according to Egyptian officials…persuading the military group to stay an extra day even though the two sides appeared deadlocked.”
Israeli officials have reportedly boycotted the talks in Cairo this week, saying Hamas has failed to provide a list of the vulnerable hostages that would be released in a six week ceasefire, and their condition. Hamas has reportedly said it would need a pause in fighting to gather the information, because the hostages are held in different locations and are not all under the control of the group.
“Having gone back and forth on the length of any cease-fire, negotiators are now pressing for a short break to buy time for a longer pause in hostilities, according to Egyptian officials,” the Journal report said. “Even a few days without fighting would allow both sides to prove they were serious about a lengthier deal, the officials said.”
Israel was unlikely to be open to such a proposal, an Israeli official suggested.
The U.S. administration declined to say if it was open to the idea, essentially for a brief pause in order to try to secure the six week pause and hostage release. “We’re just not going to comment on specific details like that,” an official said.
The United States is deeply invested in reaching a six week truce and hostage release deal, ideally by the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts on March 10, but if need be, later. It does not seem to have a viable plan B for what to do if a deal is not reached besides continuing to try to reach one.
Reports of an impasse could be genuine, but could also represent brinksmanship in the negotiations, some Middle East experts suggested.
We likely won’t know if a deal happens until March 10, or even a day or two afterwards, suggested David Makovsky, a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
But it’s also possible, Makovsky suggested, that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may not want a deal, and calculates that extending the war and upheaval, particularly during the sensitive time of Ramadan, will raise prospects of Hamas allies in the region, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, expanding the conflict to other fronts.
“He was hoping that October 7 would light up the Middle East in terms of creating a multi-front situation with non-state actors,” Makovsky said. “And yet, ultimately, they didn’t rally to his side the way he thought. He may see Ramadan as a second chance to get them to rally to his side.”
“So I see this as it’s all up to one man, and I just don’t think we know. We’re not inside this guy’s head,” Makovsky said. “We don’t know what the next five days are going to be—brinksmanship, and everyone’s going to be at the edge. Or whether he made this calculation” to try to expand the conflict.
A ballistic missile strike by Yemen’s Houthi rebels killed three civilian crew members aboard a Liberian-owned cargo vessel on Wednesday as it sailed through the Gulf of Aden. The Iranian-backed Yemeni group has cited American and British support for Israel after the October 7 Hamas massacre of 1,200 Israelis as its rationale for attacking international shipping.
The State Department’s Miller said it was inevitable that Houthi attacks on international shipping would eventually result in fatalities.
“Unacceptable…unsustainable”
As to what the U.S. plan is if talks are unable to reach a ceasefire, Miller said he wasn’t willing to discuss hypotheticals, but the U.S. was continuing to press Israel to permit more crossing points for humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and for de-confliction so that the United Nations and other groups could deliver the aid inside Gaza, particularly north Gaza. It was also exploring an option to bring aid into Gaza by ship, and would continue air drops of humanitarian aid into Gaza which the U.S. has been conducting in cooperation with Jordan since Sunday.
“I don't want to speak to hypotheticals, but the desperation of the Palestinian people continues and people still are desperate for food and water and medicine,” Miller said. “Which is why we are continuing to push to get as much aid as possible through as many channels as possible.”
“It’s also urgent irrespective of a ceasefire to dramatically increase the humanitarian assistance that’s getting to the people inside of Gaza,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in joint remarks to the press with visiting Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Monday. “The situation…requires more crossings, it requires more aid getting in, and once that aid is in, it requires making sure it can get to the people who need it. …Because the situation as it stands is simply unacceptable.”
It was a message that top Biden administration officials pressed on Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz when he met with Vice President Kamala Harris, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Monday, and with Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Tuesday.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said his government pressed the urgency of reaching a humanitarian pause and of Israel increasing the flow of aid into Gaza when he met with Gantz in London on Wednesday as well.
“We are still not seeing improvements on the ground,” Cameron said in a read-out of his meeting with Gantz. “This must change.”
“As the occupying power in Gaza, Israel has a legal responsibility to ensure aid is available for civilians,” Cameron’s readout continued. “That responsibility has consequences, including…whether Israel is compliant with international humanitarian law.”
It was unclear if U.S. frustration with Israeli restrictions that have contributed to children dying of starvation in Gaza had risen to the level where it might contemplate action at the UN Security Council.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield met with UN Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag on Wednesday. “Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield noted that the United States continues to urge Israel to take additional measures in cooperation with the United Nations to ensure the safe distribution of aid to those in need,” U.S. Mission to the United Nations spokesperson Nate Evans said.
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