U.S. expected to join E3 in Iran censure resolution
The United States and three European powers who were part of the 2016 Iran nuclear deal are expected to jointly circulate a resolution censuring Iran for insufficient cooperation at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board meeting this week, despite U.S. concerns that the action could provoke an Iranian overreaction and will not result in a clear policy outcome.
The censure resolution is expected to come during the IAEA Board of Governors’ discussion of the issue of nuclear safeguards, a diplomatic source said. The IAEA BoG quarterly meeting got underway in Vienna on Monday.
U.S. officials have bristled at suggestions in the press in recent weeks that Washington was not keen on pursuing a censure resolution at this time, and at reports suggesting the E3 taking a more hawkish position in internal consultations. Washington has been very forward leaning in pushing G7 and European allies to tighten sanctions on Iran, particularly in the wake of Iran’s April 13 ballistic missile and drone attack on Israel following Israel’s April 1 attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria. The U.S. and EU announced they had jointly sanctioned Iranian UAV entities on June 3, in part after the EU created a new sanctions authority targeting Iranian-backed terrorism in the wake of those consultations, a diplomatic source said.
The State Department declined to say what action the U.S. expected to take at the IAEA board meeting this week, but confirmed that the US and “E3”—Britain, France, and Germany--would be acting together.
“I am not going to preview any actions that we might take at the IAEA Board of Governors,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told journalists at the Department press briefing today (June 4). “I’ll just say that we have taken significant actions at the IAEA in the past, we are prepared to do so again in the future. And we continue to talk with our partners including the E3 about exactly what those might look like.”
“Should there be a resolution, you will see the United States’ position when that resolution comes forward,” Miller said. “But I think you should not expect us to be acting in any sort of disharmony with our E3 partners. We prize our unity with them, and I expect that to continue.”
An Iran expert who saw a draft of the resolution said it was mildly worded but could still prompt a severe Iranian response, especially with Iran anxious to not appear vulnerable in the midst of Iran presidential elections following the May 19 death in a helicopter crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
“We might end up in the worst of all worlds, in the sense that, it’s a bland resolution that is not going to get the IAEA closer to its objectives. And yet it is going to prompt an Iranian unconstructive response that would only add to the tension,” said Ali Vaez, Iran program director at the International Crisis Group.
Though the U.S. reportedly argued in internal consultations that the costs outweigh any potential benefits that it might have, the Europeans were insistent that lack of action would undermine the Board of Governors’ credibility, Vaez said.
But as you play this out, he said, the ultimate IAEA pressure point is to refer the matter to the UN Security Council, where Russia will block any resolution against Iran.
“In that sense, there’s very little to gain from this approach,” Vaez said. “But at the same time, the Europeans believe that there needs to be some consequences for Iran’s lack of cooperation on safeguards issues, otherwise the Non-Proliferation Regime would be undermined.”
So why did the U.S. go along?
American officials said the administration values showing no daylight with the Europeans on Iran. As the State Department’s Miller said, “I think you should not expect us to be acting in any sort of disharmony with our E3 partners. We prize our unity with them, and I expect that to continue.”
Vaez also saw domestic politics.
The U.S. administration “does not want to be seen this close to the elections as being soft on Iran one way or the other, and that allies of the US are adopting a tougher approach,” he said. “So although the administration did not agree with the policy, eventually it just decided to go along with it.”
The censure is not a surprise, said Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.
“The E3 said in March they would pursue a resolution in June if Iran failed to cooperate with the IAEA,” Davenport said. “Nor will it be a surprise when Iran ratchets up its nuclear program in response.
“The question mark is whether the censure is part of a broader strategy to deescalate nuclear risk,” she said. “The United States and the E3 should take proactive steps to prevent further escalation and incentivize Iran to expand IAEA access and monitoring. It is unlikely that Iran will engage until after its presidential election, but Tehran’s demand of sanctions relief in exchange for cooperation with the agency is not going to change.”
The E3 in a joint statement at the IAEA BoG meeting today urged Iran “to halt its nuclear escalation” and “return to the limits imposed” by the 2016 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which then-U.S. President Trump quit in 2018.
“The E3 have consistently worked towards a diplomatic resolution,” the UK ambassador, speaking on behalf of the E3, told the IAEA Board of Governors today. “In 2022, Iran twice refused a negotiated outcome which would have returned Iran to compliance with the JCPOA. Instead, Iran has chosen to escalate and to expand its nuclear program to alarming levels.”
A European diplomat said he assumed the censure resolution will be adopted with about 18 to 20 votes, fewer than one issued in November 2022, that passed with 26 votes. The IAEA BoG has 35 members.
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