UN watchdog: Discussions ongoing to clarify 84% enriched particles at Iran site
IAEA DG may travel to Iran in coming days. Some arms control experts urge the US and E3 to pursue a new, more limited Iran diplomatic strategy focused on securing increased visibility into program.
“To the best of our knowledge, we don’t believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge that they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003,” CIA Director Bill Burns said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Feb. 26.
But on enrichment, “they’ve advanced very far to the point where it would only be a matter of weeks before they can enrich to 90%, if they chose to cross that line,” Burns said.
“It’s critical that we stabilize this current crisis and prevent further escalation,” Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.
“We would like to see the U.S. take the lead in quiet diplomacy in close partnership with Germany, the UK and France to find means that would address in particular…lack of visibility [into] Iran’s nuclear program,” former acting US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Tom Countryman.
“The problem is…the Iranians’…mindset is not at all right now focused on anything less than the JPCOA,” said the Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez. “They do believe that in a few months, we would realize that the regime is fully in place …and at some stage, we would come to them and… will take [a deal] to restore the JCPOA.”
The UN atomic watchdog agency reportedly confirmed in a report Tuesday that Agency inspectors detected particles of uranium enriched to 84%, just shy of weapons grade, at the underground Fordo facility on Jan. 22. Discussions with Iran are ongoing to clarify the matter, the agency said.
With no near term prospect of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), some arms control experts are urging the United States and Europeans to pursue a new, more narrow diplomatic strategy focused on securing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) greater visibility into Iran’s nuclear program, in order to reduce uncertainty and help avert the risk of potential conflict.
A European diplomat said today that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi likely will travel to Iran in the coming days. The IAEA did not respond to requests for comment.
The next IAEA Board of Governors meeting is set to start next week, on March 6.
Iran nuclear deal ‘is on ice.’
Senior US administration officials said Iran’s enrichment advances have reduced the amount of time it would take to produce enough weapons grade fissile material for a nuclear weapon to less than two weeks, though they do not currently believe Iran has decided to restart its nuclear weaponization program.
“Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb's worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days," Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said at a House Armed Services committee Tuesday.
"And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear program, it is better than the other options,” Kahl said. “But right now, the JCPOA is on ice.”
“To the best of our knowledge, we don’t believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge that they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003,” CIA Director Bill Burns said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Feb. 26.
But on enrichment, “they’ve advanced very far to the point where it would only be a matter of weeks before they can enrich to 90%, if they chose to cross that line,” Burns said.
“They’re still a ways off, at least in our judgment, in terms of their ability to actually develop a weapon,” Burns said. “But their progress on enrichment is quite troubling.”
Iran, in a letter cited by the IAEA report, said that “unintended fluctuations in enrichment levels may have occurred during transition period at the time of commission the process of [60%] product (November 2022) or while replacing the feed cylinder,” Reuters reported.
The IAEA report comes after a spokesman for Iran’s atomic energy organization (AEOI) on Monday said that IAEA chief Grossi had been invited to visit Tehran “in the coming days.” AEOI spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi added that “we had constructive discussions with [the] IAEA delegation led by IAEA Deputy DG [Massimo] Aparo in the past few days,” Iranian journalist Abas Aslani reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, at a meeting with his Finnish counterpart Pekka Haavisto in Geneva on Monday, also claimed that Grossi will visit Tehran “in the near future,” Aslani reported.
With little near term prospect of reviving the JCPOA, some arms control experts are urging Washington and the Europeans to pursue a more narrow deal focused on securing the IAEA greater visibility into Iran’s nuclear program in order to reduce uncertainty, de-escalate tensions and help avert a potential conflict.
Approaching dangerous turning point
“Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology has been such a continuing crisis, that it can be hard to identify when you're at a particularly dangerous turning point,” former US acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Tom Countryman said on a media zoom Friday (Feb. 24). “But I think we are at such a point now for several reasons.”
“First, Iran has not slowed down on its enrichment capabilities since President Trump…violated the JCPOA by withdrawing from it,” Countryman, now chair of board of the Arms Control Association, said. “What is more worrisome about Iran's progress is that we don't have sufficient eyes on what they are doing... And this leads to greater uncertainty and greater risk about Iran's progress.”
“At the same time, we see more threatening rhetoric emanating not only from Tehran, but also from Jerusalem, and the risk of a conflict which would inevitably involve United States forces is, in my opinion, higher than it has been in recent years,” Countryman said.
“Still, there remains room for diplomacy,” Countryman said. “And we would like to see the US take the lead in quiet diplomacy in close partnership with Germany, the UK and France to find means that would address in particular the first problem, the lack of visibility on Iran’s nuclear program.”
It seemed unlikely that Iran’s enrichment to 84% was accidental, but it probably also does not represent an immediate dash for fissile material for a bomb, suggested Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.
“I think we can probably rule out that Iran is enriching to this level to dash for a bomb, because [if that were the case] we probably wouldn’t be sitting here…still talking about it,” Davenport said on the Feb. 24 media call. “But regardless of whether or not this was accidental or this was intentional, it’s still quite concerning because…there’s no civil justification for this move. …More likely ….Iran could be testing the political responses to higher level enrichment and the technical response time.”
Red flag
“If it was intentional, it really does raise concerns about Iran’s…possible weapons intentions in the future,” Davenport said. “And if it was an accident, I think it demonstrates the challenge of discerning Iran’s intentions and monitoring its advanced program and the risk of miscalculation. That’s particularly high right now, given the advanced state of Iran’s program.”
“I think this change in pattern…is a red flag, and really underscores why a new diplomatic strategy is imperative,” Davenport said. “It’s critical that we stabilize this current crisis and prevent further escalation.”
With the prospect of reviving the JCPOA on the backburner, “I think it’s imperative that the U.S. shift to a strategy that tries to pursue an interim deal or a series of reciprocal gestures between Washington and Iran that are designed to lower tensions, deescalate and stabilize the current situation,” Davenport proposed. “Most critically, I think it’s important to push for increased monitoring and verification.”
With the US and Europe focused on countering Russia’s war on Ukraine, and without Russia’s previous level of behind the scenes help to find solutions, do the US and Europe have the diplomatic bandwidth and ability to persuade Iran to comply with greater IAEA transparency measures?
Davenport said they are going to have to find it.
“The United States cannot afford a nuclear armed Iran,” Davenport said. And it “can’t afford to be dragged into a military conflict to prevent a nuclear armed Iran. So if the United States doesn’t have the bandwidth for a new diplomatic strategy on Iran, it needs to find it, because the Iranian nuclear crisis is a crisis that we can solve. It’s a crisis that we can deescalate…if we move quickly.”
“There is always diplomatic bandwidth,” Countryman said. “There’s not always political bandwidth.”
Iranians not focused on alternative to JCPOA
But Ali Vaez said the Iranians, in his recent consultations with them, have not given up hope for a JCPOA revival, and are largely not interested in any sort of narrower, interim deal.
“The problem is…the Iranians’ mindset is not at all right now focused on anything less than the JPCOA,” said Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, in an interview. “They do believe that in a few months, we would realize that the regime is fully in place, firmly in control, and at some stage, we would come to them and… will take [a deal] to restore the JCPOA.”
“My main point is, they haven’t really started discussing and exploring other alternatives, less than the JCPOA,” he said.
In terms of a narrower deal to provide for increased transparency measures, Vaez said the Iranians would expect a high cost.
“They said to me very clearly that ‘transparency measures are the most valuable card that we have,’” he recounted. “’We will give it at a very, very high cost’…I think they are really less risk averse than they were in the past.”
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