Trump turns to Putin before Ukraine on plans for peace talks

There were numerous, ominous signs that Trump was putting Ukraine in a subordinate position to his ambitions to make a peace deal and end the war Russia started at any cost.

If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.

President Trump gave a gushing account of a “lengthy and highly productive” call he held with Russian President Vladimir Putin this morning, before holding a briefer call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who Trump indicated was notified of what he and Putin had decided.

There were numerous, ominous signs today that Trump was putting Ukraine in a subordinate position to his ambitions to make a peace deal and end the war in Ukraine. Chief among them, Trump entirely ignoring the central fact that it was Russia which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

Putin “wants peace,” Trump said this afternoon, following what officials said was a 90 minute call with Putin this morning. “I think I could say with great confidence: he wants to see it end.”

Numerous Russia watchers are skeptical that Putin wants peace, but see him positioning Russia to take advantage of Trump’s desire for a settlement on his terms.

“Make no mistake—Putin is fully prepared for these talks to fail,” Tatiana Stonavaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on Twitter. “From the Kremlin’s perspective, there is nothing the West can do that would reverse Russia’s territorial gains and prevent Ukraine’s collapse in the long run. With Trump’s help, this process might accelerate.”

“As far as Trump is concerned, Ukraine’s future should be decided by the perpetrator of the crime, not its victim,” former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder wrote at his America Abroad Substack today. “Trump’s desire to end the war and being seen as a ‘peacemaker’ means the US president will be more than happy to reach a deal on terms favorable to Putin.”

Also troubling was the way Trump described that he and Putin had agreed on negotiations together, and then instructed that Ukraine be notified, without Trump first consulting Ukraine.

“We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation,” Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, following his conversation with Putin.

Notably, Trump also did not name his special envoy on Ukraine/Russia, Keith Kellogg, in a long list of senior aides he said he had tasked to begin preparing negotiations, after his discussions with Putin.

“I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations, which, I feel strongly, will be successful,” Trump wrote.

Not on that list was Kellogg, a retired general who Trump had named his special envoy on Ukraine/Russia shortly after the US elections, and who had been engaged in numerous consultations with the Europeans and other allies about setting up a peace process in recent weeks.

Moscow had not wanted to negotiate with Kellogg, Russia scholar Stanovaya said.

“From what I understand, Moscow was explicitly reluctant to engage with Kellogg, and there are reasons to believe that Trump himself hesitated to keep him as a key negotiator,” Stanovaya wrote.

White House officials did not immediately respond to queries about whether Kellogg was being sidelined.

Kellogg tweeted tonight that he was heading to Europe “to meet with Allies and partners who are ready to work” with the United States to end the war in Ukraine and restore stability in Europe.”

Kellogg will attend the Munich Security Conference later this week, along with Rubio and Vice President Vance. Vance is scheduled to meet with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Munich conference on Friday.

Kellogg will then travel to Brussels for meetings at NATO and EU headquarters, and then on to Ukraine, the State Department announced tonight.

“President Trump has made it clear that the fighting needs to stop, and the United States is ready to support a durable solution,” the State Department announcement on Kellogg’s travel said. “Special Presidential Envoy Kellogg is committed to carrying out the tough diplomacy it will take to achieve the President’s objective.”

Trump said his conversation with Zelenskyy, which reportedly lasted about an hour, “went very well.”

“He, like President Putin, wants to make peace,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We discussed a variety of topics having to do with the war, but mostly, the meeting that is being set up on Friday in Munich, where Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the delegation.”

“I am hopeful the results of that meeting will be positive,” Trump wrote. “It is time to stop this ridiculous war…God bless the people of Russia and Ukraine.”

Trump possibly demoting Kellogg on the portfolio would also be bad news for the Europeans Kellogg has been engaging on taking a larger role in supporting Ukraine, said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

“I think the absence of Kellogg from Trump's listing of officials responsible for the negotiation was very noticeable, and unfortunate, because it's signaling that the person that he anointed to deal with this issue is not being empowered to deal with it,” said Polyakova, as she was heading to the Munich security dialogue. “And it's particularly unfortunate because I think the Europeans invested so much time to try to engage with Kellogg, to provide him with feedback, and he just doesn't seem like he's really in the decision seat at all.”

Polyakova said it was also “disappointing” that Trump seemed to give Putin so much credit for releasing an American school teacher, Marc Fogel, who had been imprisoned in Russia on charges of possessing cannabis, and who returned to the United States last night in a prisoner swap.

“The fact that the US president gave him so much…reverence for that act was really problematic,” she said. “But Putin, I think, knew exactly what he was doing.”

Additional signals from the Trump administration today would seem to be weakening both the U.S. and Ukrainian negotiating positions, she said. In particular, a speech by new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Ramstein format meeting in Brussels today, saying, among other things, that Ukraine membership in NATO was not in the cards, at least in the near term.

“The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” Hegseth said in Brussels. “Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.”

“I don't think anybody thought it was on the table,” Polyakova said. “But I think signaling that, saying it out loud, [in advance], is a very counterproductive negotiating tactic.”

“So everything that they're doing right now, especially the readout that we saw from the Putin Trump phone call, is not positioning the U.S. to negotiate anything from a position of strength,” she said.

Carnegie’s Stanovaya saw Putin potentially taking advantage of Trump’s evident desire for an end to the war.

“I remain highly skeptical about the prospect of these talks,” Stanovaya wrote. “Trump wants a ceasefire and some kind of arrangement that would sideline the Ukraine issue for a while. But his vision differs radically from Putin’s. For Putin, a real solution means a Ukraine that is ‘friendly’ to Russia—deprived of military capability, has a rewritten constitution, and guarantees non-membership in NATO.”

Former US Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried suggested he was less concerned about the stylistics, or Trump’s effusive pronouncements about his call with Putin.

“The administration’s emerging Ukraine strategy could still be the basis for a decent outcome if the United States resists recognition of Russian illegal aggression against Ukraine, if it keeps NATO membership for Ukraine on the table and refuses to negotiate it with Russia, and if the United States and Europe can work out a military plan to support a backup force inside Ukraine,” Fried wrote at the Atlantic Council. “A robust cease-fire that preserves a ‘free’ Ukraine independent from Russian occupation” he continued, could become “this era’s version of West Germany.”

Trump, speaking this afternoon at the swearing-in for his new, Russia-friendly Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, said he would meet with Putin at some point, possibly in Saudi Arabia.

While Trump claimed Putin sought peace, Russia’s assault on Ukraine continued.

“Another air raid alert is in Kyiv now due to the threat of a Russian ballistic missile attack,” Ukrainian journalist Kyrylo Loukerenko tweeted today, hours after Trump spoke with Putin.

Update Feb. 13: White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, asked about Kellogg’s role at the press briefing on Wednesday, said: “The president,…following the phone call with Vladimir Putin, said that he has asked Secretary of State Rubio; the director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe; our national security advisor here at the White House, Michael Waltz; and Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.

“As for General Keith Kellogg, he remains a critical part of this team and this effort. He's played a tremendous role in getting the negotiations to this point, and he's very much still part of the Trump administration.”

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