Trump to declare Iran sanctions ‘snapback’ in virtual address to UN

World powers expected to offer muted response as they wait for outcome of November US polls

Though he has been looking for opportunities to promote himself as a dealmaker on the world stage as he campaigns for reelection, President Donald Trump finally decided that he won’t come in-person to deliver his speech to the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday next week. Like most world leaders amid covid19 constraints, he will deliver his remarks to the 75th UNGA opening session virtually. A big focus of his remarks is likely to be his administration’s claim—refuted by 13 of the other 15 members of the UN Security Council—that it has “snapped back” UN sanctions on Iran. 

Trump’s special representative for Venezuela and Iran Elliott Abrams, speaking to reporters this week, previewed a big administration show of force to claim the snapback of UN sanctions on Iran coming into force on Saturday night at 8pm. 

“As you know, virtually all UN sanctions on Iran will come back into place this weekend at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday the 19th,” Abrams told reporters on a State Department call Wednesday. “The arms embargo will now be re-imposed indefinitely and other restrictions will return, including the ban on Iran engaging in enrichment and reprocessing-related activities, the prohibition on ballistic missile testing and development, and sanctions on the transfer of nuclear and missile-related technologies to Iran.” 

“We expect all UN member states to implement the UN sanctions fully,”  Abrams continued.

Abrams, who added the Iran portfolio to his Venezuela duties this month, denigrated the other world powers that continue to support the 2015 Iran nuclear deal—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—that Trump quit in 2018 as having an “almost religious commitment” to it, and urged them to “recognize...reality and join us in imposing sanctions on Iran.” 

A centerpiece of the U.S. show of resolve will likely be a new Trump executive order “allowing him to impose U.S. sanctions on anyone who violates a conventional arms embargo against Iran,” Reuters reported.

“Probably the U.S. is going to send a letter to the Security Council president and to the Secretary General making a big deal of sanctions snapback, and demand re-creation of the sanctions committee and panel of experts,” a UN official, speaking not for attribution, told Diplomatic. “None of that is going to happen...because there is no consensus within the Council.”

“That is basically an empty gesture form the U.S.,” the UN official continued. “What really matters will also be an executive order to empower the Secretary of State and the Secretary of the Treasury to levy penalties against any country or company that would violate the UN sanctions.” 

The U.S. would interpret those sanctions to ban not just the sale of conventional weapons to Iran, but could also mandate the seizure of any legal Iranian cargo, the UN official suggested. 

The U.S. would probably require a lot of countries to...intercept and inspect Iranian airplanes, Iranian tankers, Iranian ships,..or even confiscate their cargo,” he said. “And this is I think one of the most effective ways of trying to provoke the Iranians.” 

“The U.S. is living in its own parallel world, where its unilateral decisions dictate multilateral actions,” he said. “Again, I think this will provide them with more tools to unravel the JCPOA.” 

Potentially more problematic than U.S. efforts to impose sanctions on countries or companies that would seek to trade conventional arms with Iran after an arms ban in UN security council resolution 2231 expires next month would be US efforts to try to claim the tightly internationally-monitored Iran nuclear energy enrichment program is now prohibited under its interpretation of the UN resolution. 

Possible scenarios might be for the Trump administration to threaten to cut off funds to UN entities that don’t agree they have a mandate to implement UN Iran snapback sanctions.  But more drastic measures, such as threatening to withhold funds to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which strictly monitors, inspects and safeguards Iran’s nuclear energy program, would be highly counter-productive. 

The U.S. administration might conceivably also consider moving to try to disband or defund a UN procurement channel “established by Resolution 2231 for the ‘transfer of items, materials...and technology required for Iran's nuclear activities under the Nuclear Deal’...as the U.S. will argue that this arrangement should now be terminated,” a new International Crisis Group report suggested. 

But the procurement channel has in reality barely been functional for more than a year, the UN official said.

The Trump administration has already sanctioned numerous other potential targets. In January, it added the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) and its MIT-educated chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, to its sanctions list. In 2019, it sanctioned Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, reportedly after he declined to meet Trump at the White House. 

Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group, expected European reaction to the Trump administration declarations of  the UN snapback coming into force this weekend to be somewhat muted, but for their determination to hold the deal together at least through the US elections to be undeterred.

“The E3, not just the UK, basically want to limit public rows as far as they can,” for now, he said. 

He noted that the European and international solidarity seen last month in rejecting U.S. standing to impose UN snapback sanctions on Iran came as polls showed Trump trailing Joe Biden—polls which have now somewhat tightened.

“I suspect everyone in the E3 (the UK, France and Germany) are feeling a little bit nervous,” Gowan told Diplomatic. “They made these decisions to band together against the U.S. [snapback declaration] at precisely the moment Biden was doing most well in the polls. Trump looks in a better position now than he did back in June/July. I am sure everyone is fretting how this decision plays out.” 

“Everyone in New York is really waiting to see what happens on the 3rd of November,” Gowan said on a call on Iran snapback hosted by the progressive pro-Israel group J Street on Thursday (Sept. 17). “If Trump wins, we can all forget about this game. He will have quite enough time to undermine the JCPOA in its entirety. Biden has indicated he would like to reengage with JCPOA. If Biden wins, presumably, a way will be found to forget this whole snapback...and sweep it under the carpet.”

“What this is really about is the future of U.S. policy towards Iran, and that will be decided across the country most decisively in November, rather than in Manhattan,” at virtual UNGA speeches and consultations this month, Gowan said. 

(Photo credit: Alex Brandon, Associated Press.)