State: ‘Improbable' Iran offers deal revival
The State Department expressed skepticism today that Iran might confront it with the dilemma anytime soon of offering to go back into the nuclear deal.
While the Biden administration for months has said that that it is not focused on stalemated efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, but rather on the widespread protests sparked by the death of 22 year old Mahsa Amini following her arrest by Iran’s so-called morality police, as well as on Iran’s military support to Russia’s war on Ukraine, it has been careful not to close off the prospect of revived diplomacy at some point to resurrect it.
But the State Department expressed deep skepticism today that Iran might confront it with the dilemma anytime soon of accepting the deal revival proposal that it rejected in September.
“I don't entertain…scenarios that are just…incredibly improbable,” State Department spokesman Ned Price, asked what would happen if the Iranians asked to revive the nuclear talks, told journalists at the department press briefing today (Jan. 9).
“Even if the Iranians did come back tomorrow, we have a track record here, unfortunately,” Price continued. “We…have been have been down this road with them.”
“We want to see this resolved diplomatically,” Price said. “But we're going to, in the absence of any real interest in diplomacy on the part of the Iranians, continue to keep our focus on supporting the Iranian people, keep our focus on countering…Iran security assistance to Russia.”
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Israel next week to confer with the newly formed government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Iran and other issues.
Sullivan, speaking to reporters in Mexico City today, said that all three of the Israeli Prime Ministers the Biden administration has worked with so far over the past two years have had the same basic position on the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: they opposed it.
“We had Prime Minister Netanyahu for the early months, then we had Prime Minister [Naftali] Bennett, and then we had Prime Minister [Yair] Lapid,” Sullivan said. “One thing all three of those men had in common: None of them liked the JCPOA. All three of them felt very strongly about the need for us to coordinate closely on Iran policy. And PM Netanyahu, in his latest iteration, I think, will be no exception to that.”
“I'll be going to Israel, and that will be a substantial topic of conversation when I go,” he said.
“We've made clear that our priority right now is not the JCPOA,” Sullivan said. “We have also made clear that we continue to stand behind the commitment that we have made over successive administrations to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. And we continue to believe that, ultimately, diplomacy is the best way to do that…backed effectively by…the necessary pressure to sharpen Iran’s choices, including sanctions pressure that we have increased over the course of the past year.”
Western officials and analysts said they saw recent reported comments from Iranian officials suggesting JCPOA talks could pick up some point soon as fairly transparent efforts to buck up sagging Iranian confidence in the economy and Iran’s currency, with almost no substance behind them.
“There is nothing positive in general and no movement/prospect on JCPOA,” a European diplomat, speaking not for attribution, said today.
“The reality is that the reason that diplomacy with Iran is frozen is because of Iran’s policy choices,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, said in an interview.
“My sense is that while both sides prefer to keep no deal/no crisis going as long as possible, I do believe that 2023 is the year that the status quo will come to an end,” Vaez said.
One key reason for that, he said, is because in October, a provision of UN Security Resolution 2231 expires that restricts measures on Iran’s ballistic missiles.
“In a scenario that we don’t have any nuclear agreement and Iran is selling drones to Russia, there is no scenario in which the West will allow that to happen,” Vaez said. “The only option they have to [block it] is to snap back UN sanctions, which would represent a major escalation.”
The only prospective avenue for a positive development some Iran analysts saw as conceivable on the West/Iran diplomatic front in the coming months would be a possible humanitarian deal to secure the release of American nationals imprisoned by Iran.
US, Europe condemn Iran Executions
The United States as well as several European governments, the European Union and the UN human rights office condemned Iran’s execution over the weekend of two young men detained at protests in November. Iran on Saturday hanged Mohammad Mahdi Karami and Seyed Mohammad Hosseini, after what the State Department called “sham” trials. The two men had reportedly said they were tortured.
“We are appalled by Iran’s executions of Mohammed Mahdi Karami and Mohammed Hussaini,” the State Department’s Price said. “These two individuals were put to death following what can only be called sham trials... that were rushed, and that lacked any fair trial guarantees. We condemn these executions in the strongest terms.”
“We're deeply concerned that Iranian authorities may imminently execute other Iranians, after sham trials that similarly lack fair trial guarantees, especially teenagers and youth as part of their brutal crackdown,” Price said. “And we're aware of reports that several young people have had their sentences upheld, and…may be at imminent risk of execution.”
The UK and French governments, as well as the EU, separately summoned top Iranian diplomats in their countries on Monday to condemn the executions.
“Together with its European Union partners, France calls on the Iranian authorities to halt these executions and heed the Iranian people’s legitimate aspirations,” the French foreign ministry said.
Overnight, crowds gathered outside the Rajai Shahr jail in the northern Iranian city of Karaj to try to stop the planned execution of two more young protesters, Mohammad Ghobadlou, 22, and Mohammad Boroughani, 19.
“The mother of Mohammad Ghobadlou, one of the two men at risk of execution, appealed for clemency at the gathering,” the BBC reported, adding that Ghobadlou’s mother also said her son suffered from bipolar disorder.
Reports earlier Monday suggested the executions had not yet occurred.
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