Prospects for getting to table with Iran seen to rise
A possible new opening for getting to the table with Iran seemed to emerge as the United States and European powers held off on a resolution chastising Iran at a meeting in Vienna today after the UN atomic watchdog said he had reached agreement for further technical talks in Iran next month.
“This was a positive gesture from the U.S.,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project and senior advisor at the International Crisis Group. “It appears that the U.S. cautioned the E3 against taking a step, which could have backfired. It is a signal that the Iranians should take seriously.”
“It makes it clear that both sides are still intent on leaving the door open for diplomacy,” continued Vaez, referring to Washington and Tehran. “But what is needed to make a meeting possible is to go beyond initial gestures and to take a concrete step.”
The United States last week had circulated a more hardline “non-paper” to members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors, according to Sahil Shah, policy fellow and Iran director at the European Leadership Network, who posted the document. The US non-paper, proposing a resolution expressing “the Board’s deepening concern with respect to Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA,” was seen as contributing to Iran’s decision on Sunday to reject a European Union proposal to host an informal meeting of the remaining parties to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, as well as the United States.
The Biden administration has said it is seeking to reengage in diplomacy with the parties to discuss how the United States and Iran would return to full compliance with the pact, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which then President Trump quit in 2018.
In sharp contrast to the Trump administration, the acting US envoy to the IAEA today offered a robust defense of the JCPOA in his comments to the board, and reiterated the Biden administration’s desire for a mutual return by both Washington and Iran to full compliance with it.
“As President Biden has made clear, the United States…is ready to reengage in meaningful diplomacy to achieve a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA, a key achievement of multilateral diplomacy, and a vital instrument in addressing the international community’s longstanding concerns with Iran’s nuclear program,” the acting U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Louis L. Bono the 35-member IAEA board of governors meeting in Vienna today. “We hope that Iran will agree to begin necessary discussions on a diplomatic way forward without delay.
“We have much hard work ahead of us,” Bono continued. “To accomplish it, confidence must be rebuilt – in Washington, in Tehran, and elsewhere.”
Iran’s envoy to the IAEA also expressed “a glimpse of hopefulness” at the outcome of the meeting today.
“Due to extensive diplomatic consultations at the IAEA, a glimpse of hope is looming to prevent unnecessary tensions,” Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA Kazem Gharibabadi wrote on Twitter.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Iran had agreed to hold further technical talks with the agency in Iran next month, about questions the agency has about particles from decades-old suspected nuclear work the agency recently reported.
“We are trying to sit down around the table and see if we can resolve this once and for all,” Grossi said at a press conference in Vienna today.
“Things are moving in the right direction and we have had positive signals this week and especially in last few days,” a French diplomatic source told Reuters. “We are seeing movements that we weren’t seeing last weekend.”
ICG’s Vaez, in a new paper, proposed that now both Washington and Tehran should offer a confidence-building gesture to overcome the deadlock to get to more intensive talks on how to sequence a return for return deal:
An immediate step out of the stalemate could be an agreement on an initial exchange of gestures that could break the deadlock. Such an agreement would require either quiet U.S.-Iran discussions or third-party mediation. The EU…is perhaps best placed to play intermediary between the Biden administration and Tehran, indirectly orchestrating initial steps that could make convening the informal meeting possible. Such initial steps might include, for example, the U.S. facilitating Iran’s access to some of its frozen assets for humanitarian imports in return for Iran halting one of the proliferation-sensitive nuclear activities it is now pursuing. Once at the table, the parties should negotiate an interim arrangement designed to prevent a further worsening of the situation, followed by a timetable for simultaneously reversing Iran’s nuclear breaches and U.S. sanctions.
One regional source, speaking not for attribution, told Diplomatic that he understand that the United States was considering or had agreed to let Iraq pay Iran its debt that Iran could use through a Swiss channel set up by the Trump administration to facilitate humanitarian transactions. The State Department did not immediately respond to a query. Update: A U.S. official said: “On the waiver, Iraq’s 90-day electricity waiver remains valid.”
Meantime, more members of the Biden administration Iran team have gotten into place. Veteran former senior US State Department and NSC official Richard Nephew, who served as one of the nuclear sanctions experts on the US Iran nuclear deal negotiating team, joined the new US administration as deputy Iran envoy, under Rob Malley. Another former senior State Department official who has worked on Iran and Afghanistan, Jarrett Blanc, has been seconded to work on the Malley Iran team from the Department of Energy, a source said.
Update (10 p.m.): A State Department spokesperson said by email, in response to a query about the above appointments:
“We are pleased to announce that Richard Nephew has been appointed as Deputy US Special Envoy for Iran.”
“The Office of the Special Envoy for Iran is still in the process of building out the team. We will have more to say as that develops.”