'Playing with fire': Brinkmanship at endgame Iran talks

Not yet clear if Iran negotiator has flexibility to close deal in final days as Iran says seeking improvements. France says deal needs to be finalized this week.

Vienna __ Iran said it was seeking improvements in a draft document on restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as its lead negotiator returned here today after consultations in Tehran.

“Reaching a good deal is possible ... three key issues still remain to be resolved,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said at a Tehran news conference today (Feb. 28).

"We believe that we need an appropriate pathway to solve remaining issues in the areas of lifting sanctions, guarantees and political claims that have been levelled against our peaceful civilian nuclear program,” the ministry spokesman continued.

France’s foreign ministry said it was critical the deal be finalized this week, as its lead negotiator seemingly suggested Iranian overreach in its demands would be ‘playing with fire.’

« Tehran is playing with fire, » French political director Philippe Errera wrote on Twitter Feb. 27 as European negotiators were flying back to Vienna to resume endgame talks today. He cited a French expression to the effect that one must know the point at which one has gone too far.

The three European parties (E3) to the nuclear pact, Britain, France and Germany, « know where we stand,» he added.

“There is a critical urgency to conclude the negotiations this week,” a French foreign ministry spokesperson said today.

“It’s all very difficult,” a European official said Saturday (Feb. 26), of trying to close the remaining issues.

Russia’s lead negotiator in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said late Sunday he believed the deal on reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would “almost for sure” be finalized by the time an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board meeting gets underway by here next week (March 7), he told Bloomberg’s Golnar Motevalli.

Today, he said there was a lot of work yet to do.

“Intensive work is ahead of us to wrap up the negotiations on restoration of the JCPOA,” Ulyanov tweeted today, after meeting with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri.

Western negotiators have signaled that if they are unable to reach a deal this week, they are likely to leave Vienna.

A walkout would not be “an issue of theatrics,” a senior State Department official said Friday (Feb. 25). “The issue is whether we believe a deal is achievable…in the time that remains to salvage it.”

Without a deal on reviving the pact, the Europeans and Americans would also likely proceed with a censure motion at the IAEA board meeting next week.

Then US President Trump quit the deal in 2018, and imposed crippling economic sanctions on Iran, though Iran was observing the deal. In response, Iran since 2019 has been progressively exceeding its nuclear limits to protest the lack of sanctions relief it was entitled to.

While Iran’s negotiator has returned from Iran with a message that the P5+1 package is not yet good enough, what’s not yet clear is if he has the negotiating flexibility to close the deal in the coming days, said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group.

“What is not clear is if he has the requisite flexibility to make the necessary compromises that would actually result in the other side also reciprocating his flexibility,” Vaez, here in Vienna for the talks, told me.

“I think there will be some push and pull in the next 24 hours,” Vaez predicted. “And I think if it becomes clear by tomorrow evening that he is not budging, it is likely the US and Europeans  will declare that they are leaving.”

“If, however, he shows flexibility, then it is possible to fine tune the remaining issues and wrap it up by the end of the week,” Vaez said.

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