Little progress seen in Cairo hostage talks, Israel downplays interest in deal
Israel continues to downplay interest in a potential hostage release deal and extended truce in Gaza, a day after CIA chief Bill Burns attended talks in Cairo on the matter with the Egyptians, Qataris and Israelis that apparently made little progress.
“I insist that Hamas drop its delusional demands,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement today (Feb. 14). “When they do so, we will be able to move forward."
Meantime, the United States continues to say a potential Israeli military operation to target four Hamas battalions in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, on Gaza’s border with Egypt, should only take place if there is a credible plan to protect and sustain the over 1.3 million Palestinians sheltering there, many of them displaced from other parts of Gaza by the war. American officials say Israel does not currently have either a civilian protection plan or a military plan for Rafah in place, and they assessed that any Israeli ground on operation on Rafah was still weeks away.
It is also worth noting that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan is due to start this year on March 10—in about three and a half weeks. The King of Jordan Abdullah II is understood to have raised particular concern at meetings with the U.S. administration this week that an Israeli military operation on Rafah, especially during Ramadan, could further destabilize the West Bank.
“We cannot afford an Israeli attack on Rafah,” Jordanian King Abdullah II said in remarks after meeting President Biden at the White House on Monday (Feb. 12). “It is certain to produce another humanitarian catastrophe.”
“We cannot stand by and let this continue,” Abdullah said. “We need a lasting ceasefire now. This war must end.”
Do the different signals on projected timelines suggest a possible sequencing in which a potential hostage release/humanitarian pause deal could be used by Israel and humanitarian agencies to more safely move the civilian population in Rafah to some temporary shelter so that it could do an operation against Hamas battalions in Rafah, after the first phase of any humanitarian truce/hostage release deal ends?
Or does Israel see its current military pressure and posture of disinterest in a new hostage release deal as leverage in negotiations, that might convince Hamas to agree to terms that Israel would find more acceptable?
Western officials suggest there is ambiguity in the Israeli government position, and the Israeli leadership may be of multiple minds on such matters, and be advancing multiple options, and will decide later which one to take. But they say they see consensus across Israeli war cabinet members on the need for Israel to take military action on Rafah at some point to attempt to eliminate four Hamas battalions alleged to be there. (Israel does not apparently think that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is himself hiding in Rafah.)
“We’re looking for a temporary pause as part of a hostage deal and then to build on that into something more enduring,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told journalists at the White House briefing today (Feb. 14).
“What that looks like exactly, on what parameters, where Hamas fits into that, all of the other pieces, that’s things that we’re going to have to work through with our partners in Israel and with others,” Sullivan said. “But the goal would be to start with a temporary pause and see what we can build from there.”
“What we would like to see…is that Hamas is ultimately defeated, that peace and security come to Gaza and to Israel, and that we then work towards the longer-term issues related to a two-state solution with Israel’s security guaranteed,” he said. “But it all begins by trying to get that pause in hostilities for a certain period of time, and then that opens the potential options for where things can go from there without prejudging anything, because this is a dynamic situation.”
European official: Truce should be used for regional de-escalation, not just humanitarian relief
“Everybody’s waiting for a deal, a long term truce…in exchange for the release of the hostages,” a European official, speaking not for attribution, said this week. “I think everybody's hoping.. this is going to give some breathing room for everyone.”
“But I think we need to be careful to avoid having a situation where this truce is used only to provide humanitarian relief,” the European offical said.
“Obviously, this is a priority, and this is extremely important,” the European official said. “But the truce needs to be used also for regional deescalation.”
“And I think that's a big objective of everyone involved,” the official said. “But also to try and create some kind of political horizon, because we think that without this, we can very easily go back to the same situation when the truce ends.”
Analyst: Israel seeks to take control of Egypt Gaza corridor
An Israeli military operation on Rafah does not appear imminent, but Israel appears determined to take control of the Philadelphia corridor, the narrow strip of land between Egypt and the Gaza strip, before the war ends, said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
“They want to seize the Philadelphia Corridor, so they can completely encircle the Gaza Strip,” Ibish said.
Israelis have said from the beginning they want to take control of the territory, and cut off Gaza’s access to Egypt, and surround Gaza entirely, on all sides, he said.
Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and director of MEI’s program on Palestine and Israel/Palestinian relations, said he is skeptical that Israel will produce a serious plan to avoid civilian casualties in Rafah, and said American warnings for Israel to do so lack consequences.
“I don’t know what to predict or think anymore, because four and a half months into it, there is no end, no limit, no red lines, no end,” Elgindy said. “Anything is possible.”
“I have zero faith they [the Israeli military] will protect [Palestinian] civilians, based on what we have seen the last four months,” Elgindy said. “The Israelis don’t care about [Palestinian] civilians. The Americans, to the extent they care, don’t care enough to do anything but wring their hands.”
A “major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than one million people sheltering there,” President Biden said after meeting Jordan’s King at the White House Monday. “Many people there have been displaced…multiple times…and now they’re packed into Rafah—exposed and vulnerable. They need to be protected.”
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