Iran hesitates on talks before elections

Amid uncertainty whether the Iranians are willing to move forward or not, Iran FM Zarif says "that is not the case."

Now that the US is considering a gesture for gesture idea to try to break the deadlock to get to talks on how the US and Iran might return to full compliance with the Iran nuclear deal, it seems there is some Iranian hesitation--perhaps reflecting an Iranian debate if they want to make progress before the Iranian elections in June.

A return to the nuclear deal by both sides before the Iranian elections could potentially boost turnout in favor of more moderate candidates or produce a surprise, one Iran expert characterized the potential concern on the part of the conservative Iranian leadership.

That is the context in which US Iran envoy Rob Malley told Axios: “We don’t intend to base the pace of our discussions on the Iranian elections — the pace will be determined by how far we can get consistent with defending U.S. national security interests. In other words, we won’t rush or slow things because of the Iranian elections."

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, asked about Iran cooling to the idea of a potential gesture to get to technical talks, repeated the public Iranian position that the United States should lift sanctions.

“This is not the case,” Zarif told me by email. “If the U.S. lifts all sanctions, we will come back to full compliance.”

It is “not complicated,” Zarif continued.  “This all can be done long before the elections.” 

Intermediaries have been pursuing a possible “gesture for gesture” idea in which the United States and Iran each would take a step to break the deadlock to get to talks on how to synchronize a deal in which both sides would fully implement the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the expert said. For instance, in which the United States would let Iran have access to some of its foreign bank assets for humanitarian transactions, and Iran would suspend one of the nuclear steps it has taken to protest the lack of sanctions relief since Trump quit the nuclear deal in 2018, such as 20% enrichment.

“Possible U.S. steps with regard to sanctions can be on the table but we need to get into a conversation with Iran, whether direct or indirect," a senior State Department official told Axios.

"The president will not take unilateral steps when it comes to removing sanctions. Any substantial move by the U.S. will have to be part of a process in which both sides take actions."

The Iran expert who consults with the US administration told Diplomatic:

“There are several intermediaries trying to help. The EU is one of them. The Swiss are another.”

“It appears that intermediaries were trying making some progress in what the first gesture for gesture would be to break the deadlock….But it appears the Iranians are a bit changing their tune.”

“That might be indicative of…an internal debate happening in Iran, that might basically be an indication that there  are… voices inside Iran who might prefer not to make progress before the elections.”

While Malley’s comments indicate the US is not trying to rush to finish a return deal before the Iranian presidential elections in June, the concern is how the situation can be stabilized over the several months until a new Iranian government is in place.

UN atomic energy agency watchdog Rafael Grossi last month brokered a three month deal with Iran to buy time for potential political talks to try to make progress to stabilize the situation.

“If you look at the pattern of the last six weeks--tensions in the region—it is not a sustainable situation,” the expert said. “It is definitely a risky gambit.”

The option for each side making a first step to break the deadlock to get to an informal meeting is not dead yet.

“It remains a viable option,” the expert said. “At this stage, there is a bit of uncertainty whether the Iranians are willing to move forward or not.”