Iran agreed to cap 60% stockpile, IAEA chief says

‘I made a request for Iran to stop increasing the stockpile of 60%, and this was accepted by Iran,’ IAEA DG Rafael Grossi said.

The head of the UN atomic watchdog agency said today that Iran had agreed to his proposal to cap its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity, short of weapons grade, following his two-day visit to Iran last week. What’s more, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors on Saturday had observed preparatory steps by Iran to implement the cap, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported.

“I made a request for Iran to stop increasing the stockpile of 60%, and this was accepted by Iran, which took initial steps…which could be verified on Saturday by our inspectors,” Grossi told journalists at a press conference in Vienna today (November 20).

“We will see what happens,” Grossi continued. “But this is what we agreed, and I hope this will hold…I think this is a very, very important development indeed.”

Iran also agreed to issue visas for more experienced agency inspectors, he said.

Grossi spoke as the quarterly meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors got underway in Vienna today. Ahead of this week’s “BoG” meeting, the United States and three European powers had prepared a draft resolution calling on Grossi to issue a comprehensive report by the spring on Iran’s cooperation with an IAEA probe into nuclear particles found at some sites suspected of being related to possible past undeclared nuclear work, for a program that the US assessed that Iran shut down in 2003.

The draft resolution, sponsored by France, Germany, the United Kingdom and United States, “requests the Director General to produce a comprehensive and updated assessment on the possible presence or use of undeclared nuclear material in connection with past and present outstanding issues regarding Iran’s nuclear programme….for consideration by the March 2025 Board of Governors or at the latest by spring 2025,” according to a draft dated November 20 and seen by Diplomatic.

Grossi, asked if he expected the US/E3 resolution would prompt Iran to yank back the agreement on capping its 60% stockpile, suggested that he did not believe it would.

“This was not discussed as a tit for tat thing,” Grossi said.

He said that the issue of what Iran might seek for capping its 60% stockpile and possible other confidence-building steps was not discussed in his conversations with Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—a chief architect of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that President Trump quit in 2018–and other senior Iranian officials.

“There was no conditionality, as I discussed with them,” Grossi said. “Of course, I do not exclude, as a result of further developments, there can be other things, but this is a speculation.”

A European diplomat and another nonproliferation expert suggested that Iran might respond to the European/US resolution by expanding its enrichment capacity through operating more centrifuges.

“Iran has a number of installed, but non-operating centrifuges at Natanz and Fordo,” Kelsey Davenport, Director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, told me.

“Do I think that would be a carefully calibrated response to a censure resolution? That would be manageable,” Davenport continued. “The devil is in the details there,” depending on which machine, at what enrichment level, they might install.

“But I would expect Iran to retaliate for a resolution by moving horizontally rather than vertically, given how high tensions are and the risk of miscalculation,” she said.

“We will respond decisively and immediately to any resolution passed at the IAEA Board of Governors,” Iran Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi vowed, Iranian news outlet Iran Nuances wrote.  “The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran is prepared to implement our decision at the same hour it is adopted.”

The Iranians are ready to cap their 60% stockpile, and are prepared to offer more transparency on their nuclear program, in line with the additional protocol, but they will want proportionate sanctions relief, a former Iranian official, speaking not for attribution said.

With the experienced diplomatic team that Pezeshkian has assembled, that includes both Araghchi as well as former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as an advisor, they probably understand that with Trump returning to the White House in January, they may need to be patient, the former official said.

As to whether the United States and Europeans might have considered holding off on the resolution given Grossi’s report on Iran’s expressed willingness to take positive steps, the Arms Control Associations’ Davenport said she believes it is worth testing.

“I think the Europeans should have tested the waters to see if Iran's willingness to cap 60% could be expanded upon into these other issues,” Davenport said. “I mean, if Iran was trying to send a political signal that it was willing to engage and willing to take steps to de-escalate, the Europeans should have put an off-ramp on the table.”

“I think diplomacy appears stalled,” Davenport said. “We need creative, flexible ideas. I think testing intentions now could open a pathway to de-escalation, but Iran is not going to take steps in a vacuum. It's going to be looking for reciprocal actions from the Europeans and the United States.”

But the former Iranian official said Europe has lost leverage on Iran, to both China, as the major purchaser of Iran’s energy exports, and Gulf countries like Qatar and Oman which have been mediating on sensitive regional issues.

Iran, for its part, is showing interest in trying to engage with the incoming Trump administration.

“There are currently more trial balloons in the air from Tehran than there are at a country fair,” Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said at a panel on prospects for US Iran engagement held at the Stimson Center November 15.

A meeting between Trump confidante Elon Musk and the Iranian ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani was held on November 11 to discuss defusing tensions, the New York Times reported.

“This initial meeting, I think it's good,” the Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez told me. “But if it doesn’t turn into an established channel in which both sides can explore options and possibilities, not much will come out of it.”

Photo: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian received IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in Tehran on November 14, 2024. /president.ir

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