Europe sees uptick in Russian ops aimed at ‘unnerving and dividing’ West
Russia expanding threats, hardening stance: ‘If Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not stop there,’ a European official said March 12. ‘Russia is now is betting on European and Western fatigue.’
European officials and analysts see the continent under stress from increased Russian hybrid attacks and meddling aimed at unnerving and dividing the West, and reducing western support for Ukraine, as well as from the prospect of a possible return of Trump and U.S. election year political dysfunction.
“Russia threatens the security of Europe, with its actions in Ukraine and hybrid attacks, which have been multiplying against France, the U.S. and many of its partners,” a European official, speaking not for attribution, said on Tuesday (March 12).
Russia now betting on Western fatigue
“What is at stake in Ukraine is far beyond Ukraine. It includes the future security of Europe, the security of the U.S., and the Western countries,” the European official continued. “Russia now is betting on European and Western fatigue.
“We have a shared diagnosis of the fact that Russia is hardening its stance, and is multiplying its attacks, including in the (cyber/disinformation operations) field,” the official said. “We see now a very assertive Russia, both within Ukraine, and beyond. I think there's a general consensus … that if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not stop there.”
The United States and NATO could face the prospect of a direct Russian threat to NATO if the West lets Russia prevail in Ukraine, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned on Tuesday.
The timetable for a prospective direct Russian challenge on a NATO member “depends entirely on what happens in Ukraine,” Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski told journalists at a breakfast hosted by the Monitor newspaper on Tuesday (March 12).
“If Ukraine wins, and it is possible…, then that will be the end of the Russian Empire,” Sikorski said. “But if…we allow Russia to conquer Ukraine, then the timescales dramatically shrink, because he will do to Ukraine what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia….He will do to the rest of Ukraine what he did to Dombass, which has been to take over the industry and the people, drop them… into the army, and attack us with that enhanced capability.”
If Russian President Vladimir Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, you will have Russian troops on Ukraine’s western border with NATO member Poland, and the Russian military will be strengthened by the Ukraine military equipment and manpower Russia conquers that it could use in further attacks, Sikorski warned.
“And if that happens, and if you have Putin, not in eastern Ukraine, but on the border of Poland, then guess what will happen? If NATO is to remain credible, you will need more foreign troops in Poland, including American,” he said. “So if you don’t want to send your people to Europe, the best thing is to defeat him in Ukraine.”
The Biden administration has been pressing Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to pass a supplemental budget request that includes $60 billion worth of further military support to Ukraine. The measure passed the Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support in February, and is believed to have sufficient bipartisan support in the House as well to pass, if Johnson would let it come for a vote.
Congressional leaders, including Johnson, met with visiting Polish President Andrzej Duda on Tuesday. But Johnson has said the House needs to deal with federal government funding measures before taking up Ukraine aid.
Jeffries: Putin ‘not stopping at Ukraine’
Top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries today urged Johnson to bring the national security bill with Ukraine aid for a vote before the House leaves town for another recess on March 22.
“The clock is ticking, and we have to get the bipartisan national security bill over the finish line before we leave town next Friday, March 22 — before we leave town,” Jeffries said at a press briefing today. “It’s reckless to do otherwise.
“We cannot allow Ukraine to be overrun by Russia, because what will happen is that American lives are likely to be on the line,” Jeffries said.
“Breaking news: He’s not stopping in Ukraine,” Jeffries said, referring to Putin. “If he’s allowed to be successful. And in that neighborhood, it’s filled with NATO allies, including Poland, which is one of the reasons why President Duda was so strongly supportive of making sure we continue to support the Ukrainian effort.”
“We are facing an aggressive Russia, who will not stop,” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the State Department today. “We have to stop it. You are doing a lot; we are doing a lot. Both, I think, we can do still more – in order to support Ukrainians in this very challenging time.”
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Tuesday announced $300 million in emergency additional military assistance to Ukraine, made possible, he said, by unanticipated cost-savings in contracts that the Pentagon negotiated to replace equipment already sent to Ukraine. But, he warned, the aid will not be enough without Congressional action.
“There is no other way around this,” Sullivan told journalists at the White House briefing on Tuesday. “The House has got to pass the supplemental as soon as possible to allow us to continue the flow of vital security assistance to Ukraine, [and] to replenish the U.S. military’s munition stocks.”
“The world is watching. The clock is ticking,” he said. “And we need to see action as rapidly as possible, even as we do everything in our power to get Ukraine what it needs in its hour of need.”
Putin says prospect of truce talks with Ukraine ‘ridiculous’
Russian President Putin said in an interview today that he has no interest in truce talks with Ukraine just because Ukraine was running out of bullets.
“It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition,” Putin said in an interview with Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti and Russia-1 TV channel published on March 13.
German DM: Putin waging ‘information war’
European officials and analysts say there has been a recent uptick in Russian hybrid and cyber attacks and propaganda/disinformation operations targeting European countries meant to destabilize those countries, break western unity in support of Ukraine, and mislead the public, including in advance of European parliamentary elections set for June. France in February identified the “Portal Kombat” as a Russian-linked propaganda/disinformation operation. The French government said several government ministries have been under another distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack since Sunday, allegedly by an outfit called Anonymous Sudan, though its links to Russia are not yet clear.
Germany said Russia was behind the publication on March 1 of an audio recording of a 38 minute phone call between senior German military officials discussing weapons for Ukraine.
"The incident is much more than just the interception and publication of a conversation,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said March 3. “It is part of an information war that Putin is waging.”
“It is a hybrid disinformation attack,” Pistorius continued. “It is about division. It is about undermining our unity."
Uptick in Russian hybrid attacks designed at ‘unnerving and dividing’ West
That Putin is preying on western vulnerabilities is not surprising, but western leaders should be doing a better job of projecting unity and resolve, Constanze Stelzenmüller, a Europe expert at the Brookings Institution, said.
“I think at this point, Putin is a known quantity. And the things that happened during the past few weeks shouldn’t really surprise us,” Stelzenmüller said on a panel convened by the Women’s Foreign Policy Group at the Norwegian Embassy on March 8. “But they are of course indicators of Russian perceptions of what our vulnerabilities are. And that should concern us.
“There is an uptick of interference, both on the hybrid and domestic front…that are very clearly designed at intimidating us, unnerving us and dividing us,” Stelzenmüller said. “But I do feel that we are currently having a very hard time presenting a unified front on these issues. And that there is…a causal link between our disunity and what the Russians think they can do, to keep prodding and exploring. And so I think it's time to change that.”
“And of course, one of the concerns is the American electoral period, and what … [former President Trump] has been saying,” Stelzenmüller said, referring to Trump saying last month that he would encourage Putin and Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” with any NATO member that Trump did not feel was paying enough. “And I think that that too is having a visibly unnerving effect on European political debates.”
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