‘Constructive’ Gaza ceasefire talks to continue Friday

The resumption of talks to end the Gaza war and free Israeli hostages in Doha may also serve as a release valve for soaring tensions between Iran and Israel.

Negotiations to try to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal and the return of Israeli hostages held by Hamas that got underway in Doha, Qatar, today were “constructive” and will continue on Friday, U.S. and Qatari officials said.

While there is little expectation that a final deal will be struck this week, the resumed talks may also serve as a release valve for soaring tensions between Iran and Israel following Israel’s suspected assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran last month, which Iran has vowed to avenge.

“Mediators concluded a constructive day of discussions in Doha,” a U.S. official said. “The talks will continue tomorrow.”

CIA Director Bill Burns and NSC Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk represented the United States at the talks, which also involve Israel, Qatar, Egypt, as well as Hamas, which had a political office in Qatar. Israel sent Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and IDF hostage negotiator Nitzan Alon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing domestic criticism from some security officials and hostage families that he has added additional demands to a deal and dragged his feet, said in a statement today the team had been given a mandate to negotiate.

Qatar, the host of the talks, echoed the U.S. statement in saying the talks are ongoing, but offering few details.

“The mediators are resolute in their commitment to move forward in their endeavors to reach a ceasefire in the Strip that would facilitate the release of hostages and enable the entry of the larges possible amount of humanitarian aid into Gaza,” Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Dr. Majed bin Mohammed Al-Ansari said in a statement.

There seemed to be the sense that the immediate threat of Iranian retaliation had perhaps slightly receded—particularly while the Gaza ceasefire talks were underway. But the White House said today, they don’t have certainty on that.

“I can't sit here and tell you for sure that there's been a decision to change their mind,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on a Zoom call today.  “And I can't tell you for sure, if they attack, what that is going to look like or even when it would occur.” 

“A few days ago, we had information, which we continue to have that information, that an attack could come with little or no warning, and certainly could come in coming days,” Kirby said.  “And we have to be ready for it.” 
 
“But the messaging effort continues and will continue, because what we're really after is de-escalation and trying to prevent this,” he said.

The host of the Doha talks, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani, called the acting Iranian foreign minister today to update him on developments in the Gaza mediation efforts, “stressing the need for calm and de-escalation in the region,” the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Al Thani “described the results of this phase of the negotiations as sensitive,” the Iranian foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani tweeted.

Putting time on the clock gives space to cool Iran/Israel tensions

The resumption of the Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha helps buy time and space to try to reduce tensions, said Gregory Brew, Iran and energy senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.

“Putting time on the clock… kind of helps everybody,” Brew said. “Getting the talks restarted, but also setting the expectations super low, as far as what kind of progress we can expect. Nobody is saying anything about a deal. It’s just like, now everyone’s going to start talking again and we’re going to start the process.”

“The longer the talks go on, the more space that creates for Tehran to take a beat, the more space it creates for Bibi [Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu] honestly, to push back against the kinds of pressures that he’s under, and the better it looks for the U.S., because Biden’s main goal right now is to try to get a ceasefire. So it kind of helps everybody,” he said.

Ceasefire talks give Iran chance to delay retaliation

“As far as Iran's perspective, I'm increasingly of the mind that they’ve boxed themselves in, that they're in a strategic dilemma,” Brew said. “They probably don't know what to do as far as striking back without causing escalation, both because the U.S. has positioned so many more assets, and because the Israelis are unpredictable. They can't count on Israel not escalating in its response function. And Khamenei generally likes to take his time, and he generally doesn't like to take risks, and he also generally likes to act in consensus.

“I think it's more just there's no good option,” Brew continued. “They can't do what they did in April; they have to do something bigger. If they do something bigger, that triggers escalation. The U.S. has a lot more metal in the region than they did a few weeks ago, so they're conscious of that, and they're stuck.

“And the fact that ceasefire talks are now restarting gives them the chance to delay even more,” he said. “If they get a deal--which, again, is unlikely--… that's the off ramp for de-escalating. Because they can point to that, and they can say, this is why Ismail Haniyeh had to be martyred….We can take the victory. We can take the win without having to retaliate in a significant way.”

Senior Iranian military commanders have started to use language that suggests perhaps more flexibility in Iran’s response than a major military attack, explained Iranian journalist Saeed Azimi.

“Senior military commanders in Iran are now calling for a ‘definite response,’” Azimi wrote at INews. “This has a more nuanced and complicated meaning that the ‘revenge’ and ‘retaliation’ called for previously. A response need not to be of a military kind. Such rhetoric is a signal that Iranian officials are keeping their options open.”

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