Blinken: ‘We’ll see by their actions’ if Iran willing to lower tensions, ‘no agreement in the offing’
“There is no agreement in the offing, even as we continue to be willing to explore diplomatic paths,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the Council on Foreign Relations on June 28.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken today denied that there was any sort of imminent agreement with Iran, but said the Biden administration was continuing to explore diplomatic paths.
Blinken, however, seemingly alluded to reportedly indirect talks between the United States and Iran that have occurred in Oman and other channels about trying to lower tensions, saying Iran could demonstrate its willingness to do so through its actions.
“There is no agreement in the offing, even as we continue to be willing to explore diplomatic paths,” Blinken said at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York today (June 28), in a conversation with outgoing CFR President Richard Haass discussing his administration’s approach to foreign policy challenges as President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris gear up to run for reelection.
“At the same time, we've been building up our deterrence,” Blinken said. “And we’ve been working closely with partners in the region to do just that.”
Blinken also suggested that Iran could demonstrate willingness to deescalate tensions by refraining from provocative actions.
“I think whether Iran chooses itself to take actions, or maybe better put, not to take actions, that further escalate the tensions, not only between us, but with other countries, we'll see by their actions,” Blinken said.
Earlier this month, American officials said they have held indirect talks with Iran both to convey “unambiguous” warnings that Iran should not conduct weapons grade enrichment, and to urge Iran to take steps to demonstrate that it is willing to de-escalate tensions, including providing greater access to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and releasing American citizens jailed by Iran.
“We’ve been very clear in messages to Iran through whatever existing channels, that if they were to take some steps, it could lead us to a very dangerous spot, and we’ve been very clear that they should avoid them,” a senior U.S. official said in an interview June 12.
“Separately, we’ve told them we are interested in a de-escalatory path,” the official said. “And we want to see whether they are prepared to do that.”
“The question is whether they are willing to take steps that will show that they are open to trying to change the current trajectory,” he said. “That could open up different possibilities and create a different context for a potential diplomatic process.”
Seeking a ‘timeout’
With talks on restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), stalemated since last August, both Iran and the United States “appear to have come to the conclusion…that it’s in their interest to stabilize relations,” Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who leads high level, track 2 dialogues between western and Iranian policymakers and experts, told a Quincy Institute panel on June 23. “The Biden administration is placing a priority on avoiding a nuclear crisis with Iran, as well as averting a conflict in the region…as President Biden's reelection campaign prepares to enter full swing.”
The focus for the U.S. is on three objectives, DiMaggio said: freezing progress on Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program; reducing tensions in the region; and securing the release of Americans who are being unjustly imprisoned in Iran.
The timing of the de-escalation effort was driven in part by concern over the potential for further escalation amid tit for tat strikes between U.S. and Iranian-backed forces in Syria in March, following the killing of a U.S. contractor by a drone strike launched by an Iranian-backed militia, and the wounding of several US civilian and military personnel in the incident, she said.
“Why now? I think for the U.S. there's been growing concern that the ongoing series of tit for tat escalatory moves in the region are just becoming too difficult to manage,” she told the Quincy Institute panel. “The talks in Oman reportedly ramped up after these incidents.”
“The episode in March demonstrated how things could go off the rails, how a full blown conflict could be ignited,” she said. “It also has been clear for some time that a comprehensive nuclear agreement like the JCPOA isn't within reach anytime soon.
“So short of that, what can be done in the immediate term to address Iran's rapidly advancing nuclear program? Simply put, the proliferation risk is steadily becoming more acute,” DiMaggio said. And it's too risky to take a let's kick the can down the road approach. That's precisely how we ended up where we are today with North Korea.
“So the focus is on placing a pause on key elements of Iran's nuclear program,” she said. “Essentially, this is what we could call a timeout. And then the longer [term] objective is to get to sustained diplomacy. And the way I see it, is this approach is meant to initiate a much needed pragmatic diplomatic strategy, in parallel to the deterrence and the coercive policies that are currently in place.”
U.S. again goes mum
Where are the talks at the moment?
As Blinken’s comments today suggest, U.S. officials aren’t saying much.
“I don’t have any updates to share on this matter,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told journalists at the Department press briefing June 27, when asked about a possible prisoner swap deal or understanding on Iran nuclear restraints that might let Iran get access to Iranian funds held in South Korean banks. “We continue to work to secure the release of detainees…And we continue to believe that diplomacy is the best path for ensuring that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.”
“I know that there are a lot of reports, [and] there continues to be a lot of swirl around this question, but I don’t have any updates to share,” he said.
Any progress since last week, a reporter asked?
“I have no updates at all to share,” Miller answered.
Regarding the U.S. Iran de-escalation channel, a European official indicated this week he considers it a useful dialogue, that might serve as a potential prelude to an eventual renewed discussion on reviving a more comprehensive nuclear deal (such as the JCPOA). It was still to be seen, however, if it would work, the person said.
Another senior European diplomat, speaking about a meeting between EU coordinator Enrique Mora and Iranian deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri last week in Doha, Qatar, said the EU still is interested in trying to revive the JCPOA.
“The main objective was JCPOA,” the senior EU diplomat said. “To try to go back.”
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