Blinken urges diplomacy to calm Israel Lebanon border as Israel pulls some troops from northern Gaza

“We believe – and the Government of Israel believes – that a diplomatic path is the best way to achieve that security, and that’s exactly what we’ll continue to pursue,” Blinken said in Tel Aviv.

As Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel today for the fourth time since the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks, Israel was apparently shifting to a new, ostensibly more targeted phase of its war against Hamas in Gaza, even as Israeli officials vowed that the war will continue for months until their goals are achieved.

But in a sign of Israeli political leaders’ apparent reluctance to be perceived by the Israeli public as reducing the intensity of military operations in Gaza before Hamas is destroyed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not hold a joint press conference with Blinken, as they’d done on Blinken’s earlier trips. And the pullout of some Israeli reserve units from northern Gaza has been communicated, somewhat obliquely, by Israeli military officials, mostly to western media, rather than by Israeli political leaders to the Israeli public. (“The war must not be stopped until we achieve all of its goals,” Netanyahu said in his usual maximalist rhetoric at a cabinet meeting Sunday. “We must continue until total victory.”)

Blinken, speaking after what was described as a private meeting with Netanyahu, as well as consultations with other members of Israel’s war cabinet, said as the Israeli Defense Forces reduce their presence in northern Gaza, the United States and Israel had agreed on a plan for the United Nations to conduct an assessment of what would be required for the nearly million Palestinians displaced from the north to central and southern Gaza to be able to return, though thousands of homes have been destroyed.

“As Israel’s campaign moves to a lower-intensity phase in northern Gaza, and as the IDF scales down its forces there, we agreed today on a plan for the UN to carry out an assessment mission,” Blinken said at a solo press availability in Tel Aviv tonight.  “It will determine what needs to be done to allow displaced Palestinians to return safely to homes in the north. 

“In today’s meetings I was also crystal clear:  Palestinian civilians must be able to return home as soon as conditions allow,” Blinken said.  “They must not be pressed to leave Gaza.  …The United States unequivocally rejects any proposals advocating for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza, and the prime minister reaffirmed to me today that this is not the policy of Israel’s government.”

The Israeli Defense Ministry readout of Blinken’s meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant notably avoided mentioning any reduction in the Israeli force presence in northern Gaza or combat intensity. Rather, it referred to “changes” in combat tactics in northern Gaza, and an intensification of operations in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza.

Gallant, briefing Blinken on war developments, “reflected on changes in combat tactics in the northern area of the Gaza strip, which will enable the State of Israel to achieve its goals in the war,” the Ministry of Defense readout said. “He emphasized that operations in the region of Khan Younis will intensify and continue until Hamas leadership is detected, and Israeli hostages return home safely.”

Gallant also urged “an increase in the pressure placed on Iran.”

An IDF spokesman did talk about a new phase of operations in Gaza, in a virtual forum Monday, and said some reserve units were being sent home from Gaza to visit with their families, attend to financial matters, and rest up in case they are needed in future operations against Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border with  Lebanon.

“For the first time, Israeli officials have said that we are now moving into another, new stage of operations,” IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus said on a zoom hosted by the Israel Defense and Security Forum on Monday (Jan. 8). “What does that mean on the ground? It means that in part of northern Gaza, the IDF has achieved effective control above ground, and it is working slowly, carefully, meticulously in order to dismantle all of Hamas infrastructure in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.

“What the IDF is now doing is also alleviating some of the pressure from the reserve units, bringing them out, allowing [them]… to get back home to see their families, perhaps to attend to financial matters, and also to rest and to prepare for the next stages of operations,” Cornicus said. “Whether that will be in the south or …[on] the Northern Front with Hezbollah…And the IDF will have to have its forces ready for such a development as well.”

Israel-Palestine expert David Makovsky sees more US and Israeli convergence on some short term issues, particularly as Israel reduces its footprint in northern Gaza, less so on the thornier issues of post-war Gaza governance.

“So you've gone from 360,000 [Israeli] reservists right in the aftermath of Oct. 7, to what looks like it will be under 100,000 before the end of this month,” Makovsky, with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an interview. Israel is “pretty much getting a grip on Northern Gaza which has been kind of the backbone of Hamas’ apparatus. And so,…the war turns to the south,” where some 2 million Gazans are now sheltering.

“At the same time, of course, there's a simple basic question of managing expectations, because they've told the public… that they're going to crush the Hamas leadership,” Makovsky said. “So to say that we're going to low intensity sounds to Israeli ears,… there will be people who will say ‘Yeah, well, it's a different sort of war because America pressured Israel.’ I don't think that's accurate.”

Makovsky suggested that was one reason for the lack of a Netanyahu Blinken joint press today.

As Gaza war winds down, fear Israel Lebanon hostilities could increase

Some analysts said they see a risk that as Israel reduces its troop presence in Gaza, it could get drawn into or even inadvertently provoke an escalation with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“I've started to hear in the last couple of days…concerns at a very high level here in D.C. about Israeli actions in Lebanon, and the fear that they might trigger the second front,” Firas Maksad, Lebanon expert and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute said in an interview. “So these two fronts are absolutely related in terms of the finite amount of attention, bandwidth, personnel, equipment and resources. And as Gaza winds down, that will certainly allow Israel more flexibility to operate in the north, given the potential for a major war, or at least that's the fear.”

“The Israelis are certainly more forward-leaning…and have adopted a posture, which signals to Hezbollah that they are ready to go to an all-out war if they don't meet their objectives, which is pushing Hezbollah off that northern border,” to allow for the return of the some 75,000-80,000 Israelis who have left Israel’s northern border out of security concerns, Maksad said.

“The Lebanese position… is we are happy to entertain the idea of moving away from that border and providing assurances. But we would like to make progress on demarcating that land border in return,” which has 13 points of dispute, he said. “The Lebanese position-- I think reflecting where Hezbollah is--is, let's talk through American mediation.”

Biden envoy Amos Hochstein “is the key interlocutor there about how to resolve” the Israeli Lebanon border disputes, Maksad said. Such a deal would “in return provide the fig leaf for Hezbollah to pull back from that border.”

Hochstein is expected to be in Beirut later this week.

“We’re fully committed to working with Israel to find a diplomatic solution that avoids escalation and allows families to return to their homes, to live securely in northern Israel and also in southern Lebanon,” Blinken said in Tel Aviv today.

“No one wants to see other fronts opened in this conflict,” Blinken said.  “We have countries around the region that are using their relationships, using their influence, to try to make sure that that doesn’t happen.”

“We strongly support the proposition that Israelis need to know security so that they can return to their homes in northern Israel,” he said.  “Eighty-thousand or so Israelis have been forced from their homes because of insecurity…coming from southern Lebanon, the rocket attacks, other threats posed by Hezballah.  Equally, we believe – and the Government of Israel believes – that a diplomatic path is the best way to achieve that security, and that’s exactly what we’ll continue to pursue.”

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